Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
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773 FXUS63 KSGF 240214 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 914 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Thunderstorms move into the area Friday morning. Some may be severe with large hail and damaging winds. - If enough instability remains, additional strong to severe storms may develop Friday afternoon along and south of Interstate 44 with large hail and damaging winds. - Additional severe weather and heavy rain chances Saturday night into Sunday. && .MESOSCALE... Issued at 847 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 The 00Z KSGF sounding showed a very unstable atmosphere with 2100j/kg of ML CAPE however a substantial cap remains at 800mb. A weak 700mb ridge has remained across the area today into this evening which has prohibited any storm development given the cap. A very moist airmass has moved in with dew points in the 65-70 degree range across the area. A low level jet was increasing across Kansas which was fueling a cluster of storms across Nebraska. Additional storms were forming across Oklahoma. Very little in the way of storm chances are expected for most of the overnight as we likely remain capped. Latest model guidance suggests the bulk of the Nebraska storms to move east towards northern Missouri and Iowa. However the low level jet will begin to veer and guidance suggests that a band of showers and thunderstorms may begin forming across eastern Kansas after 4am, entering western Missouri closer to 6-8am. Steep mid level lapse rates and adequate shear may allow for a few storms to become severe. These would likely be elevated with large hail the main threat. This band of thunderstorms looks to work its way through the area during the mid/late morning hours (8am- Noon) with that severe threat continuing. It is possible that storms attempt to become surface based if enough heating occurs. Most likely area for this would be east of Springfield. This area of thunderstorms would be ahead of an approaching cold front. Several questions remain with the afternoon and evening thunderstorm development. How much does the morning development work over the atmosphere? How fast does the cold front work through the area before additional storms form? From a synoptic standpoint, the area will be positioned in a favorable upper level jet location therefore lift should not be an issue. Some high res models and the RAP continue to show an impressive amount of instability during the afternoon ahead of the front (3000-4000j/kg of ML CAPE). IF this amount of instability were to develop then severe storms would be likely with large hail to the size of golf balls and damaging winds being the main threats. Hodographs look fairly straight with low level winds remaining southwesterly which would limit the tornado threat however increasing the threat for some splitting supercells with large hail. These higher severe chances are favored along and south of I-44. Therefore we will need to monitor how the morning development transpires. If clouds/precip linger longer than expected than instability/severe weather would be lower. The other factor is the speed of the front however most guidance has it reaching the I-44 corridor by 4-5pm. If its quicker than the severe threat would be more southeast of the area. Additional updates to come overnight into Friday morning. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 251 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Short range forecast remains generally on track though timing has slowed with the system lifting into the Dakotas and associated trailing cold front advecting across the Plains. Through tonight - a warm front has progressed northward through the forecast area with a cap limiting convection from developing. With the shift of winds to the south, dew points have climbed into the middle 60s to near 70...with even more moisture streaming into the system as evident by the stratus on satellite. Thunderstorms are expected to develop in the highly unstable and sheared environment across the Plains this afternoon into this evening...though questions on cold pool development advancing the arrival time of thunderstorms overnight vs storms moving well ahead of the line and losing their organization. CAM model soundings in agreement that MLCAPES above 3000 J/KG will be in place over southeast KS this evening though some disagreement on whether the cap will break until forcing from the approaching outflow arrives so there may be a few scattered thunderstorms from evening into the night before the main band of strong to severe storms arrives over southeast Kansas into western Missouri toward sunrise. This band of storms will likely weaken and then strengthen once once again increase in coverage and strengthen Friday afternoon over the eastern half of the forecast as the front works its way east across the forecast area. While uncapped, the atmosphere ahead of the convection will loose some of its instability thanks to warming mid level lapse rates. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 251 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Southwesterly flow will resume as the western trough digs then advects eastward into the Plains Saturday. Progged soundings reveal an uncapped, highly unstable atmosphere. The veering profile lacks strong lower level winds at the present, though anticipate winds to strengthen as the surface low deepens rapidly over Kansas. Similar to the system tonight...the nocturnal elements may lead to severe threats diminishing and then redeveloping farther east on Sunday. Of concern with the Saturday night/Sunday system will be increasing precipital water leading to the potential for very heavy rainfall rates falling on moist soils from recent storms. A trailing shortwave will be monitored for the potential for showers Monday...otherwise the Holiday through midweek will be mild with highs in the 70s to near 80 and drier dew points. Dry weather will then prevail into midweek as a welcome surface high builds across the central US. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 543 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 VFR conditions are expected through tonight and into early Friday. A line of thunderstorms will move into during the day on Friday, especially late morning and afternoon and may need to include prevailing groups in future updates. A period of MVFR ceilings looks to arrive by morning as well. Winds will begin to turn southwesterly by Friday afternoon with a switch to the northwest at the very end of the TAF period. Low level wind shear is likely tonight at JLN. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ MESOSCALE...Burchfield SHORT TERM...Runnels LONG TERM...Runnels AVIATION...Burchfield