837
FXUS64 KSHV 101800 AAA
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
100 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1107 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop along
an elevated trough currently moving south through Southeast
Oklahoma, Northeast Texas, and Southwest Arkansas. Farther south,
additional scattered convection is developing in portions of Deep
East Texas and Western Louisiana in the vicinity of a weak cold
front. Convective coverage will likely increase through the day as
diurnal instability increases. Some of the stronger storms could
produce gusty winds and brief heavy rainfall. However, severe
weather is not anticipated.

The update to the forecast was to increase PoPs for the rest of
this morning and tweak PoPs slightly this afternoon based on the
ongoing convection.

CN

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday)
Issued at 324 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

The early morning sfc analysis indicates a weak sfc front
continuing to drift S into extreme NE TX and Srn AR, extending
from just S of a SLR, to OSA/ATA to along the Srn AR/N LA border
as of 07Z. This front is best reflected with the NE wind shifts at
the various stations across these areas, although the drier air
still lags the front a ways over SE OK into Cntrl AR as noted per
the latest sfc theta-e analysis. The front remains progged to
continue drifting S through the remainder of E TX/N LA this
morning before becoming increasingly diffuse by midday as it exits
the region, with drier air eventually backdooring SW into SW AR/SE
OK by late morning and especially during the afternoon. The
morning satellite imagery and sfc obs depicts areas of stratus/stratocu
developing near and behind the front over SW AR into extreme NE
TX/SE OK, which should continue to gradually spill SSW behind the
front through the remainder of the morning before lifting. The
increasing cloud cover will result in cooler temps than what have
been observed the last several days, with max temps returning to
if not a touch below normal across the region, especially N of
I-20.

Isolated convection that had drifted S into Nrn McCurtain County
OK and the Nrn sections of SW AR Sunday afternoon along the front diminished
shortly after midnight this morning, but the mosaic radar imagery
indicates than renewed development has occurred over Sevier/Howard
Counties in SW AR behind the front along the attendant W-E
H850-500 trough axis, with additional isolated to widely scattered
convection development expected to persist through the
morning/shift SSE as this elevated bndry drifts slowly S into NE
TX to along the AR/LA border through midday. The various hi-res
progs are not very bullish with the extent of convection
development today with this bndry until it shifts S of the I-20
corridor of E TX/N LA, where heating/instability will be
maximized. This is where low/mid chance pops were confined this
afternoon, with a gradual decrease in slight chance pops across SE
OK/SW AR later this morning.

Isolated convection may linger this evening over the SW sections
of E TX S of I-20, until the drier air is able to backdoor farther
SW over this area. Thus, a more noticeable cooling of min temps is
expected tonight over much of the region as dewpoints fall into
the 60s as the remnants of the weak front becomes stationary from
the Middle Red River Valley SE into ECntrl and SE TX/S LA. Our
attention will then turn to the WNW as the weak upper low over
Cntrl AZ drifts E into the TX Panhandle this evening/overnight as
it begins to open up, and eventually begin to drift SE through
WCntrl and into N TX Tuesday night/Wednesday morning. The
proximity of the stationary front just to our W along with the
potential for some disturbed flow aloft may yield isolated
afternoon convection Tuesday over the SW sections of E TX, where
slight chance pops were inserted over the drier NBM. Despite the
drier air, strong insolation should result in seasonal temps
Tuesday afternoon, before falling nicely in the drier air Tuesday
night as any isolated convection diminishes/becomes more focused
farther W over the Hill Country.

15

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 324 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

With the progs having trended a bit farther W with the dry air
entrainment into ECntrl TX, much of the convection associated with
the SE diving opening trough should remain concentrated just W of
the region Wednesday over Cntrl and S TX, although this will need
to be watched closely in future forecasts as at least isolated
convection may still meander into the SW sections of E TX S of
I-20. The trough is expected to near/move off the TX coast
Wednesday night, with upper ridging centered over Nrn old MX into
the Four Corners Region expected to expand E across the Srn
Plains/Ozarks Thursday and into the Mid-South/Lower MS Valley
Friday. Thus, even hotter (above normal) temps will return to the
region by late week into the upcoming weekend, as the ridge builds
farther E over the region into the Lower Ohio/TN Valleys and the
SE CONUS. Sfc ridging will also remain prevalent over the area
through late week into the first half of the weekend, keeping the
Gulf shut off and allowing for better mixing of dewpoints and
thus, lower heat indices near or less than 100 degrees.

The end of the forecast period could be interesting as some
consensus in the medium range progs suggest the center of the
ridge building farther E across much of the E Coast Sunday/Monday,
allowing for a more active seabreeze penetrating inland from the
coast under the deepening Srly flow. This may be exasperated by
the potential by a developing tropical wave or inverted trough
aloft that will shift N inland across the coast and into the
region. Should this occur, convection would become more enhanced
over Cntrl/NE LA Sunday afternoon and areawide Monday. However,
confidence remains low with the details and timing this far out as
the progs have been changing solutions daily with this all along
the Gulf coast. But should this verify, this should result in
cooler temps, higher RH`s, but also a return to some wetting rains
following a 10+ day period of hot temps/drying in wake of our
parade of MCS`s that ended around midweek last week.

15

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1247 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

A cold frontal boundary slowly sinking south through the Four
State region will bring isolated to scattered showers and some
embedded thunderstorms across the region through early evening
before dissipating. A few storms could produce brief gusty winds,
frequent lightning, and heavy downpours, but potential for this
direct impact at TAF sites (besides LFK) is generally pretty low
and thus is mainly expressed as VCTS. Otherwise, brief MVFR
conditions due to ceilings in the 2 to 3 kft range are possible
through the afternoon at nearly all TAF sites, although VFR
conditions will mostly prevail. Winds will be out of the northeast
at 6 to 12 mph through the day, except tending to be temporarily
variable in and around any thunderstorms. Other than cu ranging
from 2 to 5 kft, expect higher clouds spreading across the area
and based about 15 kft. Tonight through the morning tomorrow
should be dry with the higher clouds continuing, although a few
hour window of IFR ceilings are probable around daybreak at LFK.
Winds tomorrow will again be in the 6 to 12 mph and from the
northeast through east direction. /50/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  89  69  91  68 /  30   0   0   0
MLU  87  65  88  63 /  30   0   0   0
DEQ  85  62  87  62 /  20   0   0   0
TXK  86  64  89  64 /  40   0   0   0
ELD  85  62  87  61 /  30   0   0   0
TYR  87  68  88  68 /  40  20  20  10
GGG  87  67  89  67 /  40  10  10  10
LFK  90  71  90  69 /  40  20  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM....15
AVIATION...50