Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
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005 FXUS64 KSHV 081911 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 211 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Sunday Night) Issued at 137 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 Warm and quiet weather will continue to dominate the short-term, with upper-level ridging remaining firmly in place over Texas. Afternoon highs tomorrow will again range in the low to mid-90s, with lows tonight and tomorrow ranging in the low to mid-70s. However, by tomorrow night, the pattern will finally begin to break down, as a deep trough begins to move through the midwest and NE. It may take a few days for us to really feel the effects of this trough, but in the short-term, rain chances will begin to increase in our north zones into Monday morning. The bulk of this trough action will take place towards the middle of the week, which is where I will start with the long-term discussion /44/ && .LONG TERM... (Monday through next Friday) Issued at 137 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 Welcome! I`m glad you could join me. So, I have some good news, and some bad news. The good news is; even though there`s weather in the long-term, it`s still a far cry from what we`ve seen the last two weeks. The bad news is; there is still some uncertainty regarding a Wednesday system, with some guidance indicating another round of potentially 1-3 inches of rainfall. This is an outlier for sure, but given how much rain we`ve had so far this year, it would be a disservice not to at least mention it. Now, let`s take a look at all this in a little greater detail. By Wednesday, that trough will be moving through the NE, with another low/ridge combo setting up off the west coast. Given the flow pattern aloft at both ends of the coast, our region will return to pseudo NW flow aloft during this timeframe. Also during this timeframe, a disturbance looks to move off the Rocky Mountains and into the S. Plains, where it will ride this flow pattern SE. It`s at this point that the long-range guidance scatters. Some guidance has the disturbance remaining to our west, where others pull it through our region at rocket speed. The outliers have the disturbance moving into the region, and closing off from the main flow aloft, before finally getting pushed out into Friday. With much more certainty, shower and thunderstorm chances will return to the forecast during this timeframe, with much more uncertainty regarding QPF amounts and coverage. Thankfully, even if we do end up with the far wetter solutions, this scenario seems to resemble 1-3 inches of rain, as opposed to 3-6 inches. The other good thing is, beyond Thursday, we appear to be setting up for extended period of dry weather, with upper-level ridging moving back into the region. /44/ && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1218 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 There are some isolated pockets of patchy MVFR cu ceilings south of SHV at midday as low level moisture tries to work back in from the Gulf. However, most areas (including all TAF sites) are currently VFR with only a few cu with bases of 2.5 to 4.0 kft. Expect a bit more cu as the afternoon progresses, although bases will likely be lifting by ~1 kft during this time period. Surface winds are from the south through southwest at 8 to 15 mph with occasional gusts to or just over 20 mph. Winds will be very light from the south tonight with a better late night moisture surge trying to bring back in some lower stratus into at least southern and southwestern zones around or shortly after daybreak. This low stuff (likely MVFR at at least TYR and LFK) will likely mix out to a greater and more widespread cu field by midday tomorrow in central and western zones. Some minor and temporary MVFR vis reductions around or shortly after daybreak tomorrow are also possible at TYR and LFK. Otherwise, expect mainly VFR conditions to continue in the Four State region through the next 24 hours with winds tomorrow again from the south to southwest with speeds by midday tomorrow ranging from 6 to 12 mph. /50/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 76 95 74 90 / 0 0 10 20 MLU 73 96 71 88 / 0 0 10 10 DEQ 71 93 67 84 / 0 0 10 10 TXK 74 94 70 87 / 0 0 10 10 ELD 74 94 68 85 / 0 0 10 10 TYR 72 91 72 88 / 0 0 0 20 GGG 72 92 72 88 / 0 0 0 20 LFK 72 93 73 90 / 0 0 0 20 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...44 LONG TERM....44 AVIATION...50