466
FXUS64 KSHV 120310
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1010 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1004 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

Isolated convection has diminished this evening so have removed
the small area of slight chance PoPs across Deep East Texas as
additional overnight convection is not expected. Otherwise, the
forecast is on track with no other changes needed at this time.
Updated text products have been sent.

/19/

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 309 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

At the surface, a weak stationary front was draped west to east
across Central Texas and into Southern Louisiana. A broad upper-
level shortwave trough continues to slowly drift east across North
Texas and has aided in the development of a thunderstorm complex
over North and Central Texas. This complex is gradually moving
eastward and may approach our westernmost counties of East Texas
early this evening. Latest mesoanalysis indicates a sharp
instability gradient from northwest to southeast across East
Texas. Most of the thunderstorms should remain along and to the
south of this gradient, which should also move slowly farther
south as northeasterly winds from a broad surface ridge over the
Ohio River Valley advects drier and more stable air into the
region. This should keep most of the precip to our south and
southwest, but a few isolated showers or thunderstorms will be
possible mainly west of a line from Mount Vernon TX to Lower
Toledo Bend Reservoir. If the storms can persist, they should
quickly weaken this evening as instability wanes. I did keep some
slight-chance PoPs in the forecast for early this evening across
portions of East Texas south of Interstate 20.

After a dry overnight period, the shortwave trough will be moving
overhead and the nocturnal low-level jet may also aid in the
renewed development of a few showers or thunderstorms early
Wednesday morning across Central and Deep East Texas. However, the
upper trough will moving east of the region during the day
resulting in a gradual weakening of forcing across the area.
Therefore, PoPs should decrease through late Wednesday morning
before coming to and end completely by midday or early afternoon.
As drier air continues to advect into the region, skies should
become more clear to partly cloudy, and the increase in sunshine
should allow temperatures to warm a few degrees higher than today.
Daytime highs should generally be in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

CN

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 309 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

Strong ridging aloft and at the surface will result in a dry
forecast through at least Sunday afternoon. With mostly clear
skies and light winds, there will be little to hold back the
warming temperatures during the latter half of this work week.
Daytime highs will be well into the 90s areawide by Friday. Some
locations may be very close to 100 degrees F Saturday and Sunday.
Peak heat index values will likely rise to between 100 and 105
degrees F, but are generally expected to remain below Heat
Advisory criteria.

The forecast becomes increasingly uncertain for Sunday and
beyond. Medium range models are in good agreement suggesting a
rich plume of tropical moisture will surge northward into the area
this weekend and into early next week. This should result in an
increase for mainly diurnally-driven convection areawide
beginning Sunday afternoon and continuing into Monday and Tuesday.
The models still show some differences regarding placement of the
axis of heavier rain, so there is still quite a bit of
uncertainty at this time range. However, confidence is high that
this will be our next significant chances for rain across the
area.

CN

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 618 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

Upper low currently spinning west of the airspace has supported
some convection near KLFK and KTYR this afternoon, but aside from
this, mostly SCT/BKN upper level cloud coverage has been the
theme. Convection should dissipate over the next 2-3 hours, but
the clouds will likely hang around through the overnight with some
gradual dissipation by sunrise for most terminals. That being
said, summertime CU field will likely cover the local terminals
after 15z, and prevail through the end of the package. Terminal
winds, though VRB here at issuance time, will become more NE
through the package, generally between 5-10kt.

RK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  70  91  68  93 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  64  89  62  91 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  63  89  62  91 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  65  90  64  92 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  62  88  60  91 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  70  89  68  93 /  10  10   0   0
GGG  68  90  66  93 /  10   0   0   0
LFK  71  91  68  93 /  10  20   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...19