929
FXUS64 KSHV 120541
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1241 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1004 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

Isolated convection has diminished this evening so have removed
the small area of slight chance PoPs across Deep East Texas as
additional overnight convection is not expected. Otherwise, the
forecast is on track with no other changes needed at this time.
Updated text products have been sent.

/19/

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 309 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

At the surface, a weak stationary front was draped west to east
across Central Texas and into Southern Louisiana. A broad upper-
level shortwave trough continues to slowly drift east across North
Texas and has aided in the development of a thunderstorm complex
over North and Central Texas. This complex is gradually moving
eastward and may approach our westernmost counties of East Texas
early this evening. Latest mesoanalysis indicates a sharp
instability gradient from northwest to southeast across East
Texas. Most of the thunderstorms should remain along and to the
south of this gradient, which should also move slowly farther
south as northeasterly winds from a broad surface ridge over the
Ohio River Valley advects drier and more stable air into the
region. This should keep most of the precip to our south and
southwest, but a few isolated showers or thunderstorms will be
possible mainly west of a line from Mount Vernon TX to Lower
Toledo Bend Reservoir. If the storms can persist, they should
quickly weaken this evening as instability wanes. I did keep some
slight-chance PoPs in the forecast for early this evening across
portions of East Texas south of Interstate 20.

After a dry overnight period, the shortwave trough will be moving
overhead and the nocturnal low-level jet may also aid in the
renewed development of a few showers or thunderstorms early
Wednesday morning across Central and Deep East Texas. However, the
upper trough will moving east of the region during the day
resulting in a gradual weakening of forcing across the area.
Therefore, PoPs should decrease through late Wednesday morning
before coming to and end completely by midday or early afternoon.
As drier air continues to advect into the region, skies should
become more clear to partly cloudy, and the increase in sunshine
should allow temperatures to warm a few degrees higher than today.
Daytime highs should generally be in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

CN

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 309 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

Strong ridging aloft and at the surface will result in a dry
forecast through at least Sunday afternoon. With mostly clear
skies and light winds, there will be little to hold back the
warming temperatures during the latter half of this work week.
Daytime highs will be well into the 90s areawide by Friday. Some
locations may be very close to 100 degrees F Saturday and Sunday.
Peak heat index values will likely rise to between 100 and 105
degrees F, but are generally expected to remain below Heat
Advisory criteria.

The forecast becomes increasingly uncertain for Sunday and
beyond. Medium range models are in good agreement suggesting a
rich plume of tropical moisture will surge northward into the area
this weekend and into early next week. This should result in an
increase for mainly diurnally-driven convection areawide
beginning Sunday afternoon and continuing into Monday and Tuesday.
The models still show some differences regarding placement of the
axis of heavier rain, so there is still quite a bit of
uncertainty at this time range. However, confidence is high that
this will be our next significant chances for rain across the
area.

CN

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

For the 12/06Z TAFs, a mix of BKN mid level and denser high level
clouds will transition largely to high clouds by daybreak, with a
few brief vis reductions possible, but no widespread impacts
expected. The redevelopment of a Cu field looks to begin in the
midmorning hours, defined by FEW/BKN CIGs in the lower VFR range.
Slight chances for thunderstorms across deep east Texas may bring
impacts to KLFK in the afternoon, but confidence is not yet
sufficient to prevail impactful conditions. Light northeast winds
will continue to drop off overnight, attempting to establish a
more true easterly orientation during the day, but not increasing
much above sustained speeds in the neighborhood of 5 kts.

/26/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  91  68  93  69 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  89  62  91  65 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  89  62  91  64 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  90  64  92  67 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  88  60  91  63 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  89  68  93  68 /  10   0   0   0
GGG  90  66  93  66 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  91  68  93  67 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...26