392
FXUS64 KSHV 101947
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
247 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 241 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue mainly in two
distinct areas as a series of weak upper level disturbances moves
across Texas and Louisiana. Unorganized pulse convection is the
dominant mode south of Interstate 20 in Deep East Texas eastward
into Central Louisiana. This activity has developed in the
vicinity of a weak surface cold front. Farther north, additional
convection has been ongoing for most of the day along the elevated
frontal boundary. The southern convection, which has been far more
robust, has been fueled by surface-based CAPE values in excess of
3500 J/kg. The northern convection developed along a very sharp
gradient of SBCAPE, which is now decreased below 1000 J/kg per
latest mesoanalysis. This seems logical given the rapidly
weakening for the northern storms.

Given the trends noted above, the convection should become more
focused across the southern half of the area through the remainder
of this afternoon. Deep layer shear is very meager suggesting these
storms are likely driven mostly by diurnal instability. Therefore,
the convection is expected to gradually weaken this evening, and
no additional rain chances are anticipated overnight. The
frontal boundary and upper trough should be well to the west and
south of the forecast area for Tuesday. This should keep the vast
majority of the precip out of the area, but a few isolated
diurnally driven showers or thunderstorms will be possible across
portions of East Texas Tuesday afternoon as another shortwave
trough slowly drifts eastward across North Texas.

Partly cloudy to mostly cloudy conditions should persist tonight.
Northeasterly surface winds should also advect some drier and more
stable air into the region. With the cloud cover beginning to
become more scattered in nature, this should allow a warming trend
to begin, but daytime high temperatures on Tuesday should still
range from the mid 80s to lower 90s.

CN

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 241 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Tuesday`s shortwave trough will still be lingering across the
region and will be slowly making it`s way eastward over Louisiana
and into the Lower Mississippi Valley on Wednesday. This may allow
for a slight chance for isolated showers or thunderstorms across
Deep East Texas Wednesday afternoon. Otherwise, no additional rain
chances are anticipated until late next weekend.

An upper level ridge is progged to move eastward into the Southern
Plains during the latter half of the work week. With surface
ridging also overhead, strong subsidence should keep the area
precip-free until Sunday. Clearing skies and abundant sunshine
will allow the warming trend to increase. By Friday, daytime high
temperatures should be well into the 90s areawide. Some locations
may be flirting with the century mark on Saturday. However,
dewpoints and humidity levels are expected to low enough to keep
peak heat index values below Heat Advisory criteria through the
next seven days.

The forecast becomes increasingly uncertain for Sunday and into
early next week. The upper level ridge should move east of the
region while southwesterly flow aloft and low-level southerly flow
returns. Medium range models are in decent agreement suggesting a
low from the Gulf of Mexico will move northward into Louisiana
bringing renewed chances for showers and thunderstorms to much of
the area as early as Sunday, but higher rain chances are expected
to start the following work week.

CN

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1247 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

A cold frontal boundary slowly sinking south through the Four
State region will bring isolated to scattered showers and some
embedded thunderstorms across the region through early evening
before dissipating. A few storms could produce brief gusty winds,
frequent lightning, and heavy downpours, but potential for this
direct impact at TAF sites (besides LFK) is generally pretty low
and thus is mainly expressed as VCTS. Otherwise, brief MVFR
conditions due to ceilings in the 2 to 3 kft range are possible
through the afternoon at nearly all TAF sites, although VFR
conditions will mostly prevail. Winds will be out of the northeast
at 6 to 12 mph through the day, except tending to be temporarily
variable in and around any thunderstorms. Other than cu ranging
from 2 to 5 kft, expect higher clouds spreading across the area
and based about 15 kft. Tonight through the morning tomorrow
should be dry with the higher clouds continuing, although a few
hour window of IFR ceilings are probable around daybreak at LFK.
Winds tomorrow will again be in the 6 to 12 mph and from the
northeast through east direction. /50/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  70  91  70  91 /  10  10   0  10
MLU  66  87  65  87 /  10   0   0   0
DEQ  62  86  63  88 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  65  89  67  90 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  63  87  63  87 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  70  88  69  88 /  20  20  10  20
GGG  69  89  68  89 /  10  10  10  10
LFK  71  90  70  87 /  30  30  10  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...50