708
FXUS64 KSHV 290311
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1011 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1005 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024

Much more stable conditions in the wake of widespread convection
earlier today should yield relatively quiet evening and overnight
period. Aside from some isolated convection possibly reaching our
westernmost zones prior to daybreak, the remainder of the region
is expected to be rain-free overnight. The rain-cooled air still
in place from earlier today will allow for a mild and pleasant
night with low temperatures ranging from the middle to upper 60s
areawide. Based on these trends, this did require adjustments to
the previous forecast to lower overnight minimums by a few degrees
in most areas along with trimming back PoPs based on the forecast
reasoning mentioned above. Otherwise, the forecast is on track.
Updated text products have been issued.

/19/

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 107 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024

Gotta love northwest flow season in the ArkLaTex. To say it`s been
an active day severe thunderstorm wise is an understatement at we
are finally beginning to see light at the end of the tunnel so to
speak with the rain coming to an end across our far northwest
zones. Still dealing with severe convection across our far
southern zones but the best instability by far resides just to our
south and thus Severe Thunderstorm Watch 371 will be allowed to
expire without any additional extension necessary at 2 pm.
For the remainder of the night, already seeing new convection
developing across NW and NC OK attm and this combined with renewed
convection expected across the Upper Red Basin of NW TX and SW OK
promises to head our way late tonight. Not saying late night and
early Wednesday Morning upstream convection will be as intense and
expansive as what we witnessed this morning as the low level jet
which ofter feeds these nocturnal convective systems does not
appear to be as stout as what we saw this morning but an increase
in storm coverage and intensity is forecast just upstream of our
region late tonight and expect this to move into our far northwest
zones after midnight towards daybreak on Wednesday.

Remnant upper forcing should combine with daytime heating on
Wednesday to support scattered to numerous storm coverage once
again with storms on Wednesday likely dissipating Wed Night from
west to east.

Undercut temps tonight and shaved NBM temps on Wed given the
forecast storm coverage.

13

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 107 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024

While the upper ridge across the Intermountain west does begin to
move out into the Great Plains late Wed thru Thursday, the upper
flow pattern remains fairly chaotic as disturbances will continue
to move our way from the Upper and Middle Red River Valley. With
plentiful moisture in place not to mention daytime heating not to
mention nocturnal energy generated by an always active late May
low level jet, these are the perfect ingredients for daytime and
nighttime convection so kept pops at least in the high scattered
variety most areas through at least Saturday.

Beyond Sat, the medium range progs are split on just how active
our pattern will be for Sunday and into early next week. Did back
off pops slightly Sunday thru Tue, given this was the NBM trend
but needless to say, we are stuck in a milder but very wet pattern
through at least Saturday of this week.

13

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 707 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024

For the ArkLaTex terminals, becoming SKC now, but more SCTVBKN
decks knocking on the door for later and overnight. We may keep
VFR cigs and just see some BR around daybreak. A cold front has
edged off the Gulf coast in the wake of all the early day TS.
Our next round of TS will be a while, not nocturnal this time.
More likely late morning and early to mid aftn with models
consensus showing greatest coverage at that time. Our sfc winds
will vary from NE to SE this cycle generally 10KT or less. /24/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  67  85  70  85 /  10  70  50  50
MLU  67  85  67  84 /  10  70  60  50
DEQ  64  78  63  79 /  10  70  50  40
TXK  65  82  66  82 /  10  70  50  40
ELD  64  83  63  81 /  10  70  50  40
TYR  67  84  70  84 /  30  70  40  50
GGG  67  83  69  83 /  20  70  50  50
LFK  67  85  69  85 /  10  70  50  60

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...24