Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
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963 FXUS64 KSHV 011659 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 1159 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 949 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 Synoptic analysis this morning shows an upper trough swinging NE of the CWA, as a shortwave embedded in the mid-level flow kicks east of the DFW metro, en route to the Ark-La-Tex. Shortwave forcing and outflow from a decaying early morning MCS over central TX, along with a stalled boundary along the Louisiana Gulf Coast, should support convective initiation later this afternoon across the I-20 corridor and south. Guidance suggests that as boundary response drifts north across Deep East Texas and central Louisiana, this should collide with aforementioned western atmospheric influence, sparking thunderstorm activity locally. In a pattern that brings some uncertainty in convective evolution, there still remains some caution even with a bit of agreement within the recent CAMs. That being said, based on recent HREF and hi-res solutions, have elected to increase PoPs beyond 00z to support the northern bounds of possible thunderstorm development across the I-20 corridor. Beyond this, the forecast continues to be on track and no further updates are needed at this time. RK && .SHORT TERM... (Saturday through Sunday Night) Issued at 354 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 Aside from patchy fog across much of the region this morning, weather impacts are minimal to begin the day. However, we are monitoring an upstream MCS shifting from the TX panhandle into NW/NCntrl TX toward the DFW metroplex. More recent runs of the hi-res NAM and HRRR are increasingly bullish on this convection maintaining strength and organization as it rides a shortwave eastward throughout the day today. In keeping with these trends, have carried mid chance PoPs across much of East TX along and south of I-20 toward Toledo Bend country where it appears this complex will likely track SE if it indeed does manage to hold together through this afternoon. Lower end rain chances extend into much of Northern LA to account for any slight deviations along with potential outflow boundaries generated downstream of this convection by mid to late afternoon. As for temperatures today, increasing cirrus from the upstream convection may very well temper highs for this afternoon so it`s possible that the forecast of upper 80s to near 90 degrees may be just a bit too warm. However, due to afternoon timing of possible convection impacting southern parts of the region, we will have several hours of warming to approach seasonal average temps. It is worth noting that although severe weather is a low-end threat today, the extent of warming ahead of any possible thunderstorms later this afternoon may result in some isolated damaging winds, which is reflected by a Marginal Risk in SPC`s Day 1 convective outlook for areas generally along and south of the I-20 corridor. Some of this convection may linger into the evening hours, mainly from Toledo Bend and points eastward in Northern and Central LA. Overnight temperatures will cool back into the mid and upper 60s to lower 70s. Moving ahead to Sunday, NW flow aloft will persist and maintain at least some chance for additional scattered convection given the subtle perturbations embedded in the pattern along with the very warm and moist LL flow across our region. So expect a warm and humid day on Sunday with high temperatures near 90 degrees with better rain chances coming during the hours of afternoon peak heating before gradually diminishing by Sunday evening/night. /19/ && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Saturday) Issued at 354 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 As we move ahead to next week, upper-level ridging across Mexico will slowly expand northward into more of TX and LA. In doing so, this should begin to limit rain chances to areas mainly along and north of I-20. Not surprisingly, temperatures will begin to nudge higher throughout next week with upper 80s to lower 90s area wide. This may result in some areas approaching heat advisory thresholds by mid to late week given the higher humidity levels expected with persistent southerly flow and the very moist soil conditions after such a wet month of May. Medium-range progs do continue to suggest the arrival of a late week cold front on Friday, but some discrepancies still exist as the upper-level ridge will continue to be a factor in potentially slowing and/or preventing the front from fully advancing through the region. At a minimum, the cold front is expected to provide at least a slight increase in rain chances by late next week heading into next weekend. /19/ && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1155 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 mostly low VFR ceilings or VFR conditions will prevail through much of the remainder of the day across our terminal airspace. Followed the HRRR closely when it comes to the introduction of VCTS and TEMPO TSRA groups along and south of the I-20 Corridor late this afternoon into the evening hours with the possibility of convection coming northward from SE TX. Time/Height Cross Sections support a return to MVFR or IFR ceilings pre-sunrise across all but the TXK/ELD terminals as well as MVFR VSBYS with IFR ceilings becoming MVFR by late morning on Sunday. Winds will mostly be light and variable today outside of convection, becoming southeasterly late tonight through the first half of Sunday. 13 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 90 71 89 75 / 20 20 30 10 MLU 89 69 89 72 / 20 20 30 10 DEQ 87 66 87 70 / 10 10 30 20 TXK 89 70 90 73 / 10 10 30 20 ELD 88 66 89 70 / 10 10 20 10 TYR 88 71 89 74 / 40 20 30 20 GGG 89 70 89 74 / 30 20 30 10 LFK 90 71 88 73 / 40 30 40 0 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...19 LONG TERM....19 AVIATION...13