977
FXUS64 KSHV 311202
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
702 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Saturday)
Issued at 236 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024

This pesky NW flow pattern continues to deal blow after blow with
the next round of convection already advancing into our western
zones early this morning. Fortunately, the incoming convection is
lacking in severity so far compared to what we observed yesterday.
In fact, the last remnants of the previous round are still exiting
our far eastern zones after producing numerous wind damage reports
and several inches of rainfall in some cases. With that in mind,
have opted to expand the current Flood Watch areawide and extend
it through 06Z tonight based on the expectation of at least a few
more rounds of convection today through late this evening, with
this morning`s round likely remaining sub-severe as much stronger
convection associated with an MCS shifts from Central into SE TX.

By this afternoon, reinforcing upper-level support in the form of
a potent shortwave will pivot east along and south of the Middle
Red River Valley and induce more robust convection across much of
the region. The threat of severe thunderstorms will become more
likely during this afternoon and early evening timeframe, owing to
MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg and steadily increasing deep-layer shear.
This will promote both the threat of damaging wind gusts and even
a few tornadoes with some discrete storms possible across mainly
the southeast half of the region, where a Slight Risk is outlined
in SPC`s Day 1 outlook. Despite some uncertainty surrounding the
evolution and coverage of this late day/evening convection, it
seemed prudent to carry the Flood Watch through the first half of
tonight with a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall in WPC`s Day 1
ERO and an additional 1-3 inches of rainfall possible over the
next 24 hours.

It probably goes without saying at this point, but CAMs have been
of little help with timing and severity of this NW flow pattern
convection so can`t rule out additional extensions of the Flood
Watch. With that said, higher end PoPs continue through Saturday
although rainfall amounts should begin to drop off compared to the
past few days. Likewise, the threat of severe thunderstorms looks
to decrease as well with less forcing in play behind the departing
shortwave trough. Not surprisingly, mild temperatures will persist
given the extent of cloud cover and convection over the next few
days with highs generally in the lower to mid 80s and overnight
lows in the mid 60s to near 70 degrees.

/19/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 236 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024

We don`t fully escape NW flow quite yet for the latter half of
the weekend with additional disturbances traversing the Red River
Valley SE into our region. This will maintain at least low chance
to likely PoPs for Sunday, lower in NW zones and higher in the SE.
Expect one more day of below average temperatures before ridging
aloft begins to shift closer to the region to start the new work
week.

This first full week of June should see a return to more average
temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s and gradually lowering
rain chances as the upper ridge becomes more influential through
mid-week. Persistent southerly flow will continue through mid-week
before a cold front gradually seeps south into the region by late
Wednesday into Thursday, enhancing rain chances a bit more during
this timeframe. However, it appears the upper-level ridge will be
quick to reassert its influence on the region by the end of next
week.

/19/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 651 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024

For the ArkLaTex terminals, weakening MCS pulling into our TX
counties now from KTYR to near KLFK. This feature will slowly lift
to the ENE across the ArkLaTex, and will likely keep fairly quiet
until heating commences and then damaging winds will be possible
in and near downpours. Once again most of our terminals will be
impacted in some way especially along and east of I-49 this aftn.
Models are dated at this hour, but suggest another impulse behind
this one with TS activity lingering into another nocturnal event.
/24/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  83  70  86  74 /  90  60  70  20
MLU  84  69  85  70 /  80  70  80  30
DEQ  78  64  86  67 /  90  50  30  10
TXK  81  68  86  69 /  90  70  50  20
ELD  81  66  85  67 /  90  80  60  20
TYR  82  70  86  72 /  90  40  50  20
GGG  82  69  86  72 /  90  60  60  20
LFK  84  70  87  72 /  80  40  70  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Flood Watch through late tonight for ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073.

LA...Flood Watch through late tonight for LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022.

OK...Flood Watch through late tonight for OKZ077.

TX...Flood Watch through late tonight for TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-
     136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...24