746
FXUS64 KSHV 302339
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
639 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 224 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024

Active weather day this afternoon across our northwest half as
ample instability is combining with a very moist atmosphere and
upstream forcing from remnant MCV and associated outflow boundary
to produce locally heavy downpours mainly near and northwest of
the I-30 Corridor. After coordinating with WPC along with
neighboring offices to the west and north, have decided to issue a
Flood Watch with this afternoon`s package to encompass the
northern half of NE TX along the I-20 Corridor and to include
Southeast Oklahoma and the western third of SW AR as well with the
watch valid through 7 pm tomorrow evening.

The players for this event are the above mentioned disturbance
moving our way in WNW flow aloft and latest progs and CAMS are in
good agreement with another disturbance to follow this one, moving
out of the Upper Red River Valley, moving into the Middle Red
River Valley and Piney Woods of NE TX after midnight towards
sunrise Friday morning, bringing with it additional heavy
rainfall. Could easily see two to four inches of rainfall with
isolated higher amounts and depending on how much our region sees
with this first round of convection through much of the evening,
would not be surprised if the Flood Watch may have to be expanded
further east and south to encompass more of SW AR, NE TX and maybe
even NW LA. What`s not very clear with this forecast is how this
current disturbance will influence the size and intensity of the
convection associated with the second disturbance by the time it
begins moving into our region near or shortly before sunrise on
Friday and thus, this will be addressed with future forecasts.

Progs are really all over the place on the handling of the above
mentioned features but this forecast will follow the HREF which
shows a break in the storm coverage beyond Friday Morning across
the Flood Watch area with diurnal heating across our remaining
area helping to ignite scattered to numerous areas of convection
downstream of our current Flood Watch for Friday Afternoon.

Not to be forgotten is the wind and hail threats for the remainder
of the afternoon and evening as the southern half of NE TX has
become very unstable this afternoon and the broken line of
convection near the I-20 Corridor of N TX west of TYR will dive
southeast with a cold pool progressing southeast and will thus
pose at least a severe wind threat. Thus, Severe Thunderstorm
Watch #353 is valid through 9PM this evening.

Thanks for the coordination today FWD, TSA, LZK, WPC and
SPC...prelims to follow...13.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 224 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024

Did not make much in the way of changes to the weekend and early
portion of next week forecast. There continues to be weak
disturbances embedded in west northwest flow aloft, one that will
likely begin impacting our region late Saturday and continue into
Sunday. Beyond the weekend, what weak ridging we had to deal with
is all but exited our region to the east with additional ridging
aloft progd to build north of the Tx Hill Country into the
Intermountain West. This will only serve to further enhance
northwest flow aloft across the Southern Plains/Lower Miss Valley
and as a result, this flow could bring with it additional
thunderstorm chances through at least the middle part of next
week. Sided with the NBM for now with slight chance to low end
chance pops until disturbances in this flow can become better
defined.

13

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 622 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024

A line of strong to severe thunderstorms is moving south and east
across the ArkLaTex at this hour, bringing imminent impacts to
KLFK and KSHV. Prevailing VCTS/TSRA as needed through the evening.
Lingering showers and possible lightning for KTXK, KGGG and KTYR.
VIS/CIGs will be reduced accordingly to MVFR and IFR late
overnight and towards daybreak. Thunder chances will continue
through the night, with southeasterly winds becoming light and
variable, aside from locally high guts in the vicinty of and
resulting from thunderstorms and rain-cooled trailing regions.
Areas of LLWS will be possible for the next several hours,
particularly across deep east Texas.

/26/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  85  73  85  71 /  60  50  60  50
MLU  84  70  84  69 /  60  40  70  50
DEQ  81  66  79  65 /  60  70  60  40
TXK  84  69  82  68 /  60  60  60  40
ELD  82  67  82  67 /  50  50  70  50
TYR  84  69  82  71 /  60  60  60  20
GGG  83  70  83  70 /  60  60  60  30
LFK  88  70  85  72 /  60  50  70  40

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Flood Watch through Friday evening for ARZ050-051-059-070.

LA...None.
OK...Flood Watch through Friday evening for OKZ077.

TX...Flood Watch through Friday evening for TXZ096-097-108>112-
     124>126-136>138.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...26