Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
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343 FXUS64 KSHV 301534 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 1034 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 1025 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Scattered mainly showers are developing quickly this morning along a residual shear axis from portions of EC and NE LA into NW LA with newest development noted in advance of a decaying storm complex across NC TX. With PWATS running some one half inch higher today compared to Wednesday, not to mention forcing along the above mentioned shear axis and additional forcing moving our way from the northwest, should`t be too difficult to see at the very least, scattered to numerous areas of convection continue to bubble up, especially with the aid of peak heating later this afternoon. Did adjust pops slightly to mimic current trends for the remainder of the morning but pop coverage looks good for the afternoon hours. Likewise, adjusted hourly temperatures slightly based on current diurnal trends but did not deviate much from the previous forecast. Update has already been sent...13. && .SHORT TERM... (Thursday through Friday) Issued at 101 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Upper-level ridging across Mexico will allow for near zonal to northwest flow across the ArkLaTex today. At the surface, a weak latitudinally oriented frontal boundary across the northern gulf coast to lift north allowing for a fairly decent coverage of convection across the ArkLaTex this afternoon. A decaying MCS currently developing across Kansas, Nebraska and Oklahoma will eventually push through the ArkLaTex later this evening with a marginally severe threat for hail, damaging wind gusts, and locally heavy rainfall. A second, more robust MCS will roll through central Texas into mainly east and northeast Texas shortly after midnight tonight. Model divergence in timing and intensity with this convective complex makes for a somewhat difficult forecast. There is some basic agreement that the MCS will likely be in its mature stage as it moves into east and northeast Texas with some weakening expected through daybreak. However, renewed convection is expected during the day on Friday along the remnant outflow boundary as an upper-low and attached trough further destabilize the atmosphere across the ArkLaTex at the time of increased diurnal heating. /05/ && .LONG TERM... (Friday Night through Thursday) Issued at 101 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Upper-level flow to become more zonal as we move into the long term period. At the surface, a cold front in the wake of a departing surface front will linger across the ArkLaTex through the weekend into early next week. A series of upper-level disturbances in the vicinity of the front will allow for progressive rounds of convection through the long-term period. Specifically, some of the stronger convective episodes will occur on Saturday afternoon and evening, again on Sunday evening, and possibly during the day on Tuesday. However, with this kind of pattern, wide variations in timing and intensity of these convective episodes can be expected. Storm total rainfall through the next seven days may be significant with portions of south Arkansas and north Louisiana possibly receiving up to 4 inches of rain with widespread rainfall totals across the remainder of the ArkLaTex around 2 to 3 inches. /05/ && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 539 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024 For the 30/12Z TAF update, active weather will keep MVFR or lower vis/cigs through most of the period. MVFR for the first portion of the period will have to do with low clouds until 30/16Z while VCTS arrives in the latter portion. Light southeasterly winds will slacken after 31/00Z. /16/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 84 72 83 71 / 60 40 80 50 MLU 85 69 85 68 / 60 30 70 50 DEQ 81 66 79 65 / 60 60 80 60 TXK 84 68 81 68 / 60 50 80 60 ELD 82 66 82 65 / 50 40 80 60 TYR 84 71 81 70 / 60 50 80 50 GGG 84 70 81 69 / 60 40 80 50 LFK 84 71 83 70 / 60 30 80 30 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...05 LONG TERM....05 AVIATION...16