561
FXUS64 KSJT 051704
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1204 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 309 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Overnight storms to our northeast produced an outflow boundary
which, as of 320 AM, is pushing south through the Concho Valley
and into the Heartland. It will continue to move south throughout
the day today. Behind the boundary winds will be from the north,
helping to keep our temperatures lower for today, especially for
the Big Country. Our southeastern counties could still see
apparent temperatures approaching 105 this afternoon, due to the
higher moisture.

Convergence along the outflow boundary could be enough for isolated
thunderstorms in the the Northwest Hill Country and Northern Edwards
Plateau late this afternoon and evening. Whether or not storms form
in our area or just to our south will be heavily dependent on how
far south the boundary can make it before CIN erodes and storms
start to initiate. The instability south of the boundary will be
very high, so storms could become strong to severe. However, the
shear looks to be on the weaker side, so any storms that do
initiate will likely have short life spans. Large hail and
damaging winds could be possible with any storms that form.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 245 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

...Hot and Dry through Saturday then Becoming Unsettled Next
Week...

A hot and dry weather pattern should continue for late this week
into the weekend. A 590 dam height ridge that got established on
Wednesday should drift eastward and become centered over west Texas
on Thursday and Friday. The 00Z NAM shows a weakness in the ridge
Thursday evening, but at this point, only shows thunderstorms over
the Panhandle  and I-27 corridor, so PoPs were left out of our
forecast area.  Otherwise, the strong upper-level high should
suppress convection as it traverses eastward, thanks to 700mb
temperatures of 13-14 degrees C.  Surface temperatures should
easily reach the upper 90s to low 100s through Saturday.

Looking ahead to Sunday through the middle of next week, global
models show that the mid-level ridge should break down as a trough
digs southward through the central US.  Models also show a surface
cold front being pushed southward into Texas.  Chances for showers
and thunderstorms will increase during this time period as the front
should provide plenty of lift for an airmass with dewpoints in the
mid to upper 60s.  Temperatures should also also drop to the upper
80s to low 90s range, given the cooler airmass and higher chances
for clouds and rain.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1201 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

VFR conditions expected for the next 24 hours at all sites. Winds
behind an outflow boundary have picked up out of the east/northeast
with gusts generally below 20 kts. This is expected to continue
through the afternoon hours. Isolated showers and storms will be
possible late this afternoon and evening across our southern
counties but coverage will be isolated and confidence in location is
still pretty low so have left the VCTS groupings for KJCT and KSOA
through 02Z. Winds will become light overnight, veering more to
the south/southeast by daybreak tomorrow.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     70  99  73 100 /   0   0   0   0
San Angelo  72 103  73 103 /  10  10   0   0
Junction    72 101  71 102 /  20  10   0   0
Brownwood   69  95  69  96 /   0   0   0   0
Sweetwater  71 100  74 100 /   0   0   0   0
Ozona       72 100  74  99 /  10  10   0   0
Brady       70  95  70  98 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AP
LONG TERM....SK
AVIATION...50