Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
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418 FXUS64 KSJT 050821 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 321 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024 ...New SHORT TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 309 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024 Overnight storms to our northeast produced an outflow boundary which, as of 320 AM, is pushing south through the Concho Valley and into the Heartland. It will continue to move south throughout the day today. Behind the boundary winds will be from the north, helping to keep our temperatures lower for today, especially for the Big Country. Our southeastern counties could still see apparent temperatures approaching 105 this afternoon, due to the higher moisture. Convergence along the outflow boundary could be enough for isolated thunderstorms in the the Northwest Hill Country and Northern Edwards Plateau late this afternoon and evening. Whether or not storms form in our area or just to our south will be heavily dependent on how far south the boundary can make it before CIN erodes and storms start to initiate. The instability south of the boundary will be very high, so storms could become strong to severe. However, the shear looks to be on the weaker side, so any storms that do initiate will likely have short life spans. Large hail and damaging winds could be possible with any storms that form. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 245 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024 ...Hot and Dry through Saturday then Becoming Unsettled Next Week... A hot and dry weather pattern should continue for late this week into the weekend. A 590 dam height ridge that got established on Wednesday should drift eastward and become centered over west Texas on Thursday and Friday. The 00Z NAM shows a weakness in the ridge Thursday evening, but at this point, only shows thunderstorms over the Panhandle and I-27 corridor, so PoPs were left out of our forecast area. Otherwise, the strong upper-level high should suppress convection as it traverses eastward, thanks to 700mb temperatures of 13-14 degrees C. Surface temperatures should easily reach the upper 90s to low 100s through Saturday. Looking ahead to Sunday through the middle of next week, global models show that the mid-level ridge should break down as a trough digs southward through the central US. Models also show a surface cold front being pushed southward into Texas. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase during this time period as the front should provide plenty of lift for an airmass with dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s. Temperatures should also also drop to the upper 80s to low 90s range, given the cooler airmass and higher chances for clouds and rain. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1210 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024 There`s two areas of low clouds near our area tonight. One is to our southeast and could potentially move into KBBD and KJCT. The other is to our northeast and is associated with a line of storms pushing south. An outflow boundary from these storms will move through our area today, turning winds to the north and potentially bringing low end VFR or MVFR ceilings to KABI this morning. Winds behind the boundary could be gusty at times this afternoon. We could see isolated storms near KSOA and KJCT this evening, however confidence is still low at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 94 70 99 73 / 0 0 0 0 San Angelo 100 72 103 73 / 10 10 10 0 Junction 101 72 101 72 / 20 20 10 0 Brownwood 92 69 95 70 / 10 0 0 0 Sweetwater 94 71 100 74 / 10 0 0 0 Ozona 102 72 100 73 / 10 10 10 0 Brady 94 70 95 70 / 10 10 10 0 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...AP LONG TERM....SK AVIATION...AP