731
FXUS64 KSJT 062316
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
616 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Mainly a hot and dry forecast to continue for West Central Texas.
Thunderstorms are expected to develop over western Oklahoma and
the Texas Panhandle late this afternoon and evening. Looks like
most of this activity will remain north of our area, although
cannot rule out a storm or two making it into northwest portions
of the Big Country before dissipating later this evening.
Confidence is fairly low, so will maintain slight POPs across this
area this evening. Also, latest visible satellite imagery shows a
cumulus field developing over the Concho Valley and northern
Edwards Plateau early this afternoon. Latest CAMs show the
potential for isolated development late this afternoon and early
evening. Again, confidence is quite low over this area as well,
but will add an isolated mention through the early evening hours.

Otherwise, expect warm temperatures tonight, with overnight lows
mainly in the low to mid 70s. High pressure will be centered over
the area tomorrow, with hot and dry weather prevailing. Expect
highs tomorrow afternoon ranging from the mid/upper 90s east, to
the low 100s west.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 254 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

...Shower and thunderstorm chances return Sunday and Monday...

The center of upper level high pressure passes over West Central
Texas Friday night with southwest flow aloft returning Saturday,
and zonal flow aloft Sunday. High temperatures of 98 to 103 degree
Saturday will decrease a couple degrees Sunday with increasing
clouds. A chance of showers and thunderstorms returns late Sunday,
ahead of a weak cold front Sunday night. Instability increases
Sunday with GFS MUCAPES of up to 2800 J/KG Sunday afternoon and
evening. This along with 0-6 KM bulk shears increasing to 30 KTS
Sunday evening, some storms could be severe. Severe potential
continues Monday as moisture and instability remain over the
region. A few isolated storms possible in the Big Country
Tuesday, but warm and dry conditions are otherwise the second half
of the week, as an upper ridge reestablishes itself.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 613 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

VFR conditions will continue to prevail across West Central Texas
terminals through Friday afternoon. A brief thunderstorm near KSOA
developed and then dissipated and additional convection near one
of the terminal locations is unlikely through sunset. East and
southeast winds late this afternoon will shift to the south and
southeast and decrease in speeds, with more southerly winds
picking up again by late Friday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     74  99  75 100 /  10   0   0   0
San Angelo  75 102  73 102 /   0   0   0   0
Junction    73 101  71 101 /   0   0   0   0
Brownwood   70  96  72  97 /   0   0   0   0
Sweetwater  75  99  76 101 /  10   0   0   0
Ozona       74  98  71  97 /  10   0   0   0
Brady       71  96  72  97 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...07