109
FXUS64 KSJT 031905
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
205 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 139 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Latest visible imagery shows an outflow boundary south of the Red
River, which may move into Haskell and Throckmorton counties.
This area is probably the best bet for a thunderstorm or two this
afternoon evening, but can not rule out isolated storms farther
south...from Brownwood to Junction and east...where there may be
differential heating from a stratus layer from earlier this
morning.

The focus for Tuesday transitions from storms to heat, as an
upper ridge develops over the region, and a dryline develops east
of a Sonora to San Angelo to Abilene to Haskell line in the
afternoon. Highs will approach 105 in the Concho Valley, although
heat indices are lower at upper 90s to 100. Farther east, heat
indices along and east of a Brownwood to Junction line range from
105 to 108. A heat advisory may be needed in either or both of
these areas Tuesday afternoon, with areas from Brownwood to
Junction and east have the greatest risk.

Record high temperatures are in jeopardy Tuesday. The record high
at Abilene of 101 in 2013 looks to be exceeded with a forecast
high of 104. San Angelo forecast of 105 will be close, with the
record high of 107 in 1916.



&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 306 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

...Above Normal Temperatures Expected This Week...

An upper level ridge will sit over the western U.S. (including our
area) through the long term, allowing for above normal and
potentially record breaking heat for this week. High temperature records
could be broken on Tuesday, with temperatures and heat index
values above 105 for much of our area south of the Big Country.
The current records for June 4th are 101 (set in 2013) for Abilene
and 107 (set in 1916) fro San Angelo. The forecast highs for the
4th are 103 and 106 respectively. As a surface low situates itself
to our west/southwest on Wednesday, winds will turn from the
west/southwest to the east/southeast. This will keep surface
temperatures cooler on Wednesday compared to Tuesday, due to the
lack of downsloping winds. However, with southeasterly winds comes
increased moisture and higher apparent temperatures. So even
though the actual temperature is forecast to be lower, the heat
index will likely be similar if not higher for some areas on
Wednesday and Thursday. It is worth noting that portions of West
Central Texas are forecast to reach the extreme threshold in both
WBGT and Heat risk for the afternoons of Tuesday through Thursday.
Heat advisories and possibly even an excessive heat warning might
be needed.

The ridge will help to suppress convective activity, but there are
still a few chances for rain. A few disturbances will move
through the flow aloft over the next week thanks to a shortwave
over the northern U.S. and an upper low to our southwest. The best
rain chances over the next week will be late this weekend and
early next week, but precipitation chances are still on the lower

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1149 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

The tight pressure gradient across west central Texas will remain
in place through early this evening, keeping gusty southerly
winds in the forecast until this evening. Overall VFR conditions
are expected across all terminals today, with the exception of
some lingering MVFR ceilings across KABI, KJCT, and KBBD through
20Z today. The dryline across West Texas continues to progress
eastward today, into the western portions of our area and
potentially sparking some shower and thunderstorm development
this afternoon and evening. This may cause some MVFR ceilings
near any terminals experiencing these showers and thunderstorms.
Gusty winds will subside slightly overnight with southerly winds
at around 08 to 15 knots remaining into Tuesday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     73 102  71  95 /   0   0   0   0
San Angelo  72 105  74 101 /   0   0   0  10
Junction    74 104  75 103 /  10   0  10  10
Brownwood   72  99  73  95 /  20   0  10   0
Sweetwater  72 103  71  95 /   0   0   0   0
Ozona       73 103  74 101 /   0   0   0  10
Brady       72  99  74  96 /  20   0  10  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...61
LONG TERM....AP
AVIATION...TP