936
FXUS64 KSJT 020811
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
311 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 307 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

...Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms possible
this afternoon and evening...

Satellite and radar images indicate the MCS/MCV feature moving
eastward across portions of the northwest Hill Country early this
morning. Isolated convection across portions of Menard and Concho
counties has diminished in the last hour as the outflow boundary
from the thunderstorms across the northern Edwards Plateau earlier
this evening continues to move northeast across eastern portions of
the Concho Valley into the Heartland. May see some isolated showers
or thunderstorms develop along the outflow boundary early this
morning but storms should remain below severe limits.

The latest NAM and GFS model runs prog a weak shortwave trough in
the westerly flow aloft moving eastward across west Texas this
afternoon into this evening. At the surface...the dryline across
west Texas will provide a focus for thunderstorms to develop later
today into tonight. SPC has the western counties of our CWA under a
slight risk for severe weather today and tonight with a marginal
risk across the rest of the CWA except across portions of the
northwest Hill Country. The main severe weather hazards expected
with severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening are large hail
and damaging winds...mainly across the western portions of the CWA.

Temperatures this afternoon will range from the upper 80s to lower
90s across the Heartland to the lower to mid 90s across the I-10
corridor. Lows will be in the lower to mid 70s across most of the
CWA tonight.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 307 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

A few models are hinting at the possibility of convection in our area
Monday evening. The dry line is expected to push east into our
western counties by the late afternoon and early evening. Dewpoints
ahead of the dry line could be in the low to mid 70s, although there
is a bit of disagreement on this in the high res models, with some
models showing dewpoints in the mid 70s and some in the low 60s.
This will have a significant impact on potential development. If the
dewpoints do in fact remain high and an upper level disturbance moves
through in the evening, like some models are showing, we could see
thunderstorms. With the extensive CAPE values and mid level lapse
rates that could be in place, there will be the potential for
severe storms. This is all conditional on the dew points and
location of the disturbance however.

Some good news and bad news for the rest of the long term. The good
news is that the chance for severe weather will be lower this
next week. The bad news is that temperatures are expected to go
back into the upper 90s and 100s for much of next week. A large
upper level ridge will start to build over the western half of the
United States on Tuesday, leading to above normal temperatures
for much of the long term. Heat index values could exceed 105
degrees in some areas for Tuesday through Thursday, leading to an
increased risk of heat impacts. Precipitation chances will start
to increase on Friday as an upper low develops off to our west,
breaking down the ridge slightly and sending some upper level
disturbances through the flow aloft.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1229 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Satellite images indicate the MCS feature across the northern
Edwards Plateau is providing mostly high level clouds across the
southern and western portions of the CWA late tonight. Ceilings
were near 3000ft at KBBD. Expect MVFR to VFR conditions to prevail
across west central Texas the rest of tonight into early Sunday
morning as low level moisture across the northern Edwards Plateau
and northwest Hill Country allows low level clouds to develop.
With the MCV moving eastward across the northern Edwards Plateau
and northwest Hill Country the rest of tonight...isolated
convection may develop across portions of the CWA early Sun

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     90  72  94  71 /  30  30  10  10
San Angelo  94  73 100  74 /  20  20  10  10
Junction    95  75  99  74 /  10  10  10  10
Brownwood   89  72  91  69 /  20  30  10  20
Sweetwater  91  72  97  72 /  40  20  10  10
Ozona       89  73  96  73 /  10  10  10   0
Brady       89  72  92  71 /  30  30  10  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...61
LONG TERM....AP
AVIATION...61