978
FXUS64 KSJT 162305
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
605 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 211 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

No significant changes from the previous forecast. The upper
level ridge will generally remain over the area through Tuesday,
keeping temperatures warmer than normal, and rain chances low. The
HRRR and NAMNest do show an isolated shower or two this
evening and tomorrow afternoon, but will keep the forecast dry as
the coverage is expected to be so sparse that it doesn`t need
mentioning. Otherwise, look for lows tonight in the upper 60s to
lower 70s, and highs on Tuesday generally in the mid 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 212 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

The large scale pattern over the CONUS through the next several
days will be characterized by a broad upper level trough over the
western U.S. and an upper level low over the eastern U.S. Upper
level ridging will be in place over the southern Plains keeping
our area generally dry with warmer than normal temperatures
through the remainder of the work week. A weak shortwave will pass
overhead on Wednesday, but it appears showers and thunderstorms
will remain north of our area. Otherwise, highs will be in the
mid 90s with some upper 90s likely on Thursday and Friday.

Going into the weekend, the western U.S. upper low will begin to
eject eastward across the Rockies. A shortwave trough rounding the
base of the low will translate eastward into the Plains on
Saturday and Sunday. The exact evolution of this feature will
determine rain chances as well as a possible cold front working
its way into the region. There is still quite a bit of
uncertainty this far out, but will show cooler temperatures by
Sunday and Monday along with a slight chance of PoPs.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 600 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

VFR conditions expected for the next 24 hours. East/southeasterly
winds will become light and variable for most sites overnight. Winds
are then expected to pick up a bit by mid-late morning out of the
southeast but should generally stay at or below 10 kts sustained
(though some gusts in the 15-17 kt range may be possible for KSJT
tomorrow afternoon). Some patchy MVFR stratus may move into KSOA
around sunrise tomorrow so have included a TEMPO group for now as
confidence is not quite high enough in making it a prevailing
group yet.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     70  94  72  95 /  10   0   0   0
San Angelo  69  96  72  95 /  10   0   0   0
Junction    68  94  70  93 /  10   0   0   0
Brownwood   68  94  70  96 /   0   0   0   0
Sweetwater  71  94  73  95 /  10   0   0   0
Ozona       68  92  71  92 /  10   0   0   0
Brady       69  93  70  93 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...50