512
FXUS64 KSJT 111741
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1241 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 311 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

The latest radar imagery indicates storms over the southern Permain
Basin, moving east. A few storms are strong but remaining below
severe levels. These storms are located on the south side of a slow
moving upper level low moving slowly east-southeast across the
South Plains.

The combination of lift associated from the upper low, abundant
moisture(PW values 1.5 to 2 inches) and mesoscale outflow boundaries
will result in scattered to numerous thunderstorms today and this
evening. The Hi-Res models indicated best coverage of storms across
the southern half of the area. A few severe storms are possible this
afternoon and evening along and south of a San Angelo to Brownwood
line due to localized moderate instability and good effective
shear(moderate mid and upper level flow). The main hazards will be
large hail, damaging winds and dangerous lightning. Also, locally
heavy rainfall may produce localized flooding. The coverage of
convection should be mainly isolated after midnight. Expect warm and
humid conditions today and tonight.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 235 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

The upper-level shortwave trough that brought us some showers and
thunderstorms during the first half of this week will begin to
exit the area to the southeast and allow high pressure to begin
building back across West Central Texas through the remainder of
the week and weekend. This will lead to a transition from warm and
wet weather to more hot and dry conditions through the weekend and
into early next week. Afternoon high temperatures will start off
in the mid 80s to 90s on Wednesday, and gradually warm into the
mid 90s to near 102 by the beginning of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

Main focus for thunderstorms will be KBBD and KJCT today as
thunderstorm outflow boundaries from south of San Angelo to Brady
push south the I-10 corridor...to KSOA and KJCT. Gusty winds and
temporary reduction of visibilities to IFR possible A few isolated
thunderstorms, however may affect KABI and KSJT with surface
heating this afternoon. MVFR stratus otherwise returns late
tonight, rising or scattering out to VFR mid morning.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     83  68  87  70 /  70  10   0   0
San Angelo  91  69  92  72 /  50  20  10   0
Junction    92  70  90  72 /  50  40  20   0
Brownwood   84  68  86  69 /  60  30  20   0
Sweetwater  85  68  89  71 /  60  10   0   0
Ozona       92  69  92  71 /  30  20  10   0
Brady       84  69  84  71 /  60  30  20   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....TP
AVIATION...04