Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
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006 FXUS64 KSJT 091146 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 646 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 420 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 Hot temperatures will persists across the area again today, before a fairly significant cool down occurs on Monday. A weak cold front will approach from the north today and is expected to drift south into the Big Country this evening, possibly reaching as far south as the Concho Valley and Heartland towards daybreak Monday. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop over the higher terrain of eastern New Mexico and far west Texas late this afternoon and early evening, within a weakly capped and unstable airmass. Additional showers and storms are expected to develop along the southward moving front overnight from west Texas into our area, aided by several disturbances moving east from the southern Rockies. Some of the latest CAMs show a complex of storms developing across the Permian Basin and tracking southeast across the Concho Valley and northern Edwards Plateau during the late evening/overnight hours, with additional storms developing farther north along the front. Flow aloft will remain weak through tonight which will limit the severe potential, although a few stronger storms may result in isolated large hail/damaging winds. In addition, PW values will be around 1.5 inches, which may result in some pockets of heavier rainfall and possibly some localized flooding. Highs this afternoon will range from the mid/upper 90s over eastern sections, to the upper 90s/low 100s across western sections. Lows tonight will be in the upper 60s and lower 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Saturday) Issued at 234 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 Showers and thunderstorm chances will carry-over into Monday and Tuesday this week as an upper-level shortwave trough tracks across West Central Texas through Tuesday evening. This additional precipitation and cloud cover will allow for some cooler temperatures Monday and Tuesday, with afternoon high temperatures reaching into the mid 80s to mid 90s. Overnight low temperatures will fall into the upper 60s to mid 70s as well. A warming trend will begin mid-week as ridging aloft begins to build back over the area, bringing warmer and drier conditions back to the area through the rest of the work week and into the weekend. High temperatures by the end of the week will be back in the mid 90s to around 102. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 638 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 Stratus with temporary MVFR ceilings will affect the KJCT terminal through mid morning, otherwise VFR conditions are expected today. A cold front will drift south across the area this evening and overnight, with scattered convection developing. Will include PROB30 groups this forecast cycle, with the best chance for thunderstorms after 05Z. Expect light south to southeast winds this morning, becoming light easterly this afternoon. Winds will shift to light northerly following the front overnight. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 97 70 87 69 / 10 40 50 30 San Angelo 101 70 90 70 / 20 40 50 30 Junction 100 71 93 71 / 10 30 40 20 Brownwood 94 71 87 69 / 0 20 30 20 Sweetwater 99 70 85 69 / 20 60 50 30 Ozona 98 70 90 69 / 10 30 40 30 Brady 94 70 87 70 / 10 20 40 20 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...24 LONG TERM....TP AVIATION...24