549
FXUS64 KSJT 081915
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
215 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 210 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

As upper level ridging continues to break down through the day
today, a shortwave troughing regime will begin to shift east out of
the southern Rockies and into the Plains. As we move into the late
afternoon and evening hours, upper level clouds are expected to
increase across the area with winds out of the south staying
elevated in velocity through much of the overnight period. This will
help overnight lows across the area stay in the low to mid 70s.
Overnight tonight, a cold front is expected to drop south into the
Red River region just north of the area. Here it is expected to
stall out during the day on Sunday. A surface low out in eastern New
Mexico will keep our surface flow out of the southeast, bolstering
the already ample low level moisture we have across much of the
region. As the shortwave trough makes more progress into the area by
the afternoon, scattered showers and thunderstorms may develop,
especially around the Permian Basin, but realistically diurnal
activity could pop up anywhere with the greatest axis of instability
draped across eastern portions of our area. The bulk of the
activity will likely be outside of the short-term forecast after 00Z
Monday but isolated development around 21Z Sunday is certainly
possible. The main hindrance to any severe activity will be the
lack of effective shear across the area, forecasted around 20 kts
during the afternoon. This would support more multicellular storm
modes but some isolated instances of large hail and damaging winds
can`t be ruled out. As such, SPC has added all of West Central Texas
into a Marginal for their Day 2 Convective Outlook. Temperatures for
tomorrow will be comparable to today with our western zones in the
upper 90s to to around 103 with mid 90s across our eastern counties.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 214 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

Upper level ridge will remain centered west of the area with a
little more northwest flow developing aloft for Sunday night into
Monday and then Tuesday. Hard to cap northwest flow and this is no
exception, with most model showing some level of convection
developing at times for the period. However, models do have their
differences in just where and and what time convection is most
likely. Will continue to just run chance POPs in the 30%-50%
range for much of the period between Sunday night and Tuesday and
fine- tune the chances as it gets pinned down a little more.

Cooler on Monday and Tuesday with additional cloud cover and maybe
some storms keeping temperatures down.

Center of the upper level ridge builds closer to the area for mid
week and then eventually the ridge axis builds eastward farther
into Texas and Oklahoma. This will bring dry conditions back to
the area and allow temperatures to climb once again. Highs back
into the upper 90s to around 100 to end the week and into the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1208 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

VFR conditions currently present across the area. Gusty winds out of
the south will continue through the afternoon and into the early
evening before tapering off around sunset. However, sustained speeds
will generally remain in the 08-13 kt range through the overnight
hours. MVFR stratus is expected to build out of the southeast,
likely impacting the KJCT terminal for a few hours around daybreak
tomorrow morning. This should lift back to VFR with continuing
winds out of the south for all sites.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     75  98  71  88 /   0  10  40  40
San Angelo  75 101  71  91 /   0  10  40  40
Junction    72 100  72  93 /   0  10  20  30
Brownwood   71  94  71  88 /   0   0  20  30
Sweetwater  76  99  70  88 /   0  10  50  50
Ozona       74  98  71  90 /   0  10  30  30
Brady       72  95  71  88 /   0  10  20  30

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...50