Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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938 FXUS62 KTAE 040512 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 112 AM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 854 PM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024 No significant changes to the previous forecast appear necessary. The 00z KTAE sounding reveals a seasonably moist environment for June with a PWAT of 1.72 inches and light steering flow. Remaining convection will diminish this evening with overnight lows ranging from the mid 60s to low 70s. && .NEAR TERM... (Through Tuesday) Issued at 331 PM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024 A fairly summerlike pattern is expected through the near term with the Bermuda high keeping onshore flow in place over the area. Deep layer moisture overhead along with fairly weak steering flow will keep a locally heavy rainfall threat in place Tuesday afternoon. Forecast soundings also could indicate a gusty wind threat with the strongest storms. Temperatures are forecast in the upper 60s to low 70s in the morning before climbing into the upper 80s to low 90s in the afternoon. && .SHORT TERM... (Tuesday night through Wednesday night) Issued at 331 PM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024 The short-term synoptic pattern is forecast to consist of a narrow upper ridge over the Eastern Seaboard with an upstream longwave trough trekking through the Midwest and stout ridge anchored across the Desert SW. Meanwhile, the Bermuda High will continue to pump moist south to southwest low-level flow, resulting in hot/muggy conditions and mainly diurnal convection. Forecast high temperatures are low 90s away from the coast and lows in the low 70s. For Wednesday, the greatest rain chances focus along the I-75 corridor where the richer moisture resides, but the seabreeze should provide an additional forcing mechanism for initiation near the coast. By Wednesday night, the aforementioned trough`s position around the Great Lakes places our region under northwest flow aloft, which when combined with a trailing impulse could send a Mesoscale Convective System (MCS). The GFS, an often reliable model for MCS`, has one entering the Wiregrass early Thursday morning. If this solution verifies, then we may be looking at a severe weather/heavy rain threat. For now, confidence is not high enough to introduce any risks, but trends could change in subsequent forecasts. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 331 PM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024 Active weather appears likely on Thursday as the potential MCS, remnant outflow boundary, and/or associated front pushes through the service area. Scattered showers/thunderstorms are expected before activity shifts closer to the coast and offshore heading into the weekend. By Saturday, the longwave trough discussed in the short- term period should be east of the Great Lakes with drier northerly flow filtering in. This pattern shift should effectively put a lid on convection. Come next week, we are looking at a return to a more typical summertime seabreeze pattern. High temperatures in the 90s will be common while lows drop to the low 70s. However, this weekend`s inland minimums are likely to read in the mid/upper 60s (especially north of the FL state line) thanks to a relatively drier post-frontal airmass presiding over the region. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 110 AM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024 VFR conditions will prevail at all sites for the next 24 hours. Some low stratus and/or patchy fog may develop near DHN, ECP, and ABY, which could lead to IFR/LIFR cigs and MVFR vsbys. Have included this possibility in a TEMPO. Scattered TSRA will develop in the afternoon, starting near ECP/TLH, then spreading inland. By 01z, most TSRA will be out of the area. Generally light south to southwest winds expected through the period. && .MARINE... Issued at 331 PM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024 Offshore buoys were reporting a SE wind around 8 kts with 2-ft seas and a dominant period of 6-7 seconds this afternoon. From CWF Synopsis...Generally favorable boating conditions prevail outside of daily chances for showers and thunderstorms. The best convective potential is Thursday through Friday night. South to southwest winds at 10 knots or less are forecast, then turn west late week, and become northwesterly this weekend. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 331 PM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024 A summertime pattern is expected over the next several days with daily showers and thunderstorms in the afternoons. Storms could produce gusty and erratic winds along with isolated heavy rainfall. Dispersions are forecast to be high Wednesday and Thursday with fairly high mixing heights and increasing southwesterly to westerly transport winds. A seabreeze is expected to develop along the coast and move slowly inland each day. Otherwise, there are no fire weather concerns. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 331 PM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024 There are no significant flooding concerns over the next several days. The only exceptions can be locally heavy rain from strong and/or slow-moving thunderstorms capable of isolated nuisance flooding in low-lying, urban, or poor drainage areas. In terms of rivers, a few in the Suwannee basin remain in action stage, but levels continue to drop. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 90 70 92 72 / 40 10 30 10 Panama City 87 73 87 76 / 30 10 20 20 Dothan 90 69 91 71 / 40 10 30 30 Albany 90 70 91 71 / 40 30 30 20 Valdosta 92 71 93 71 / 40 30 40 10 Cross City 92 69 93 71 / 30 30 30 10 Apalachicola 85 74 86 76 / 20 10 20 10 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...Merrifield SHORT TERM...IG3 LONG TERM....IG3 AVIATION...Young MARINE...IG3 FIRE WEATHER...Merrifield HYDROLOGY...IG3