Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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925 FXUS62 KTAE 050154 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 954 PM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 953 PM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024 No significant changes to the previous forecast appear necessary. We`ve been watching with interest a squall line moving through portions of Louisiana, Mississippi, and southern Alabama. None of the CAM guidance has a very good handle on it. However, recent radar trends show gradual weakening, and we expect that to continue as it moves closer to our area. Overall, most of it is expected to fall apart before reaching our western counties. && .NEAR TERM... (Through Wednesday) Issued at 344 PM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024 A fairly summerlike pattern is expected to continue through tomorrow with scattered showers and storms possible in the afternoon and evening. Expect a seabreeze to develop in the late morning to early afternoon before moving inland. An inverted V in the forecast sounding and DCAPE values near 1000 J/kg will help create a gusty wind threat with any storms that do develop Wednesday afternoon. Forecast PW values are also forecast to remain near 1.6-1.8 inches which could lead to heavy rainfall. However, there is slightly better steering flow in place so hopefully the heavy rain won`t sit over the same areas for extended periods of time. Highs are forecast in the upper 80s to mid 90s with lows in the upper 60s to low 70s. && .SHORT TERM... (Wednesday night through Thursday night) Issued at 344 PM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024 A frontal boundary dropping in from the NW ahead of attendant Canadian-Great Lakes upper trough is poised to serve as focus for active weather period on Thursday. The environment will be adequately moist, unstable and somewhat sheared to supported strong to isolated severe thunderstorms capable of strong/gusty winds, hail, heavy rain, and frequent lightning. Additional forcing mechanisms are likely from the seabreeze and storm outflow boundaries. The best rain chances are along/north of the I-10 corridor. Convective trends diminish Thursday evening into Friday morning with the loss of daytime heating and front`s passage. Forecast high temperatures range from upper 80s to low 90s with the cooler readings near the coast and NW of the FL Big Bend. Overnight lows are in the low 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Monday) Issued at 344 PM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024 Despite frontal passage on Friday, the region is likely to still feel some influences of upper troughing across the Eastern US while the seabreeze helps initiate convection near the coast. The best rain chances focus along the I-10 corridor in the FL Big Bend. Drier northerly flow supports mostly sunny skies on Saturday with a slight uptick in PoPs (isolated coverage) by Sunday. Looking ahead to early next week, global models depicts a northern- stream upper trough becoming re-established with its axis cascading down the Eastern Seaboard. This pattern implies another front dropping into the region, but there are notable differences on the timing of the trough`s dip to the Gulf states - faster ECMWF vs slower GFS. Regardless, the Bermuda High anchors itself across Western Atlantic, so expect a northward surge in tropical moisture via south to SW flow. Overall, unsettled weather is likely during that time with showers/thunderstorms shifting from south (morning hrs) to north (afternoon/evening hrs). The current forecast beyond this weekend is low confidence. High temperatures in the 90s will be common with upper 60s to low 70s for overnight lows through the long-term period. Friday looks to be the hottest day when isolated upper 90s are likely with triple digit heat indices over our FL counties. Saturday-Sunday mornings are shaping up to be the coolest timeframe immediately in the front`s wake as widespread inland mid/upper 60s are forecast. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 754 PM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024 VFR conditions will continue at all sites through 09z when MVFR visibilities are expected to settle in at KTLH, KDHN, and KABY. Additionally, there is a chance of periodic LIFR CIGs at KDHN though there is some uncertainty regarding if it will stay SCT the whole time or not. VFR conditions will resume around 13z at all sites with VCTS around 18z for KTLH, KECP, and KVLD. && .MARINE... Issued at 344 PM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024 Offshore buoys were reporting SE winds 10 to 12 kts with 2-3 ft seas and a dominant period of 4-5 seconds this afternoon. From CWF Synopsis...Generally favorable boating conditions prevail over the next few days outside of daily chances for showers and thunderstorms. The best potential for maritime convection is during the early- morning hours offshore, and closer to the coast with the afternoon seabreeze. An approaching front Thursday into Friday raises rain chances across the waters. Southwest winds at 10 knots or less through late week before becoming more westerly heading into the weekend. A light north wind is expected after frontal passage on Saturday, followed by a shift out of the west by Sunday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 344 PM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024 Daily showers and thunderstorms are expected across the region with a seabreeze developing along the coast and moving inland. Mostly southwesterly winds are expected for the next couple of days before a weak cold front moves through the area on Friday. High dispersions will be possible each afternoon due to decently high mixing heights and increasing transport winds, with the best chances for high dispersions in the wake of the front on Friday. There are no other fire weather concerns at this point. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 344 PM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024 There are no significant flooding concerns over the next several days outside of locally heavy rain from strong, slow-moving, and/or multi-cellular thunderstorms. The most vulnerable locations would be urban, low-lying, and slow-drainage areas. A greater heavy rain threat could materialize on Thursday with the arrival of a front. Next week could be interesting as well, but it is too far out to parse through any further details. Meanwhile, a few rivers in the Suwannee basin remain in action stage, but continue to trend downward. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 71 93 72 90 / 10 50 10 50 Panama City 74 87 75 86 / 20 30 20 40 Dothan 70 91 71 87 / 10 30 10 60 Albany 71 92 71 88 / 30 30 10 70 Valdosta 71 94 71 92 / 40 50 20 50 Cross City 69 93 70 91 / 20 50 10 20 Apalachicola 75 86 76 86 / 10 20 10 30 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ UPDATE...DVD NEAR TERM...Merrifield SHORT TERM...IG3 LONG TERM....IG3 AVIATION...Worster MARINE...IG3 FIRE WEATHER...Merrifield HYDROLOGY...IG3