290
FXUS62 KTAE 140800
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
400 AM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 337 AM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Low to mid-level northeast flow today with PWAT generally around
an inch. Some greater moisture may pool due to the east coast sea-
breeze late today in the SE FL Big Bend, where there is a chance
of showers and an isolated thunderstorm. Otherwise, remainder of
the region is dry. Highs in the mid to upper 90s with dew points
around 60 will make heat index values comparable to the ambient
air temperatures. A dry night is on tap for the entire region.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday night)
Issued at 337 AM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

With a relatively dry air mass due to deep layer ridging on
Saturday, any shower or isolated thunderstorm activity should
be confined to the Eastern FL Big Bend, where the east coast
seabreeze will maximize moisture pooling/forcing. The rest of
the region is again expected to remain dry similar to Friday.
With the lack of precip/clouds, much of the region will bake
under a 591 Decameter ridge, with highs away from the coast
in the upper 90s to around 100 degrees. Heat index values will
creep up a bit, but are currently forecast to remain below
advisory criteria.

On Sunday, a higher PWAT air mass advects in under continued
easterly flow, but subsidence from ridging may limit activity.
For now, PoPs are near seasonable levels in the 30-50 pct
range, but that may be generous. Highs again in the mid to
upper 90s. Even if we don`t reach heat advisory criteria, it`s
unseasonably hot for mid-June, and everyone should take
precautions to avoid heat stress.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 337 AM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

The region will be sandwiched between ridging over the Middle
Atlantic and low pressure near the Bay of Campeche. This feature
has a medium chance of developing into a tropical system over the
next week, and is anticipated to remain well southwest of the
region. Diurnal showers and thunderstorms are expected each day,
with PoPs in the 20-40 pct range, possibly increasing further
by Thursday. Highs in the mid-90s each day with lows in the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 337 AM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Low-level northeast flow will keep the air mass somewhat dry at
our five terminals for the next 24 hours. It will be dry enough
to preclude sunrise stratus, as well as any showers or
thunderstorms. So simply look for development of high-based fair
weather cumulus around mid-day.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 337 AM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Tranquil boating conditions today through Saturday. Thereafter,
southeast winds will increase into early next week, as the
pressure gradient increases between high pressure northeast of
the waters and low pressure developing well southwest of the
waters. Seas will become increasingly hazardous to small craft
by early next week, when there is the potential for periods of
winds around 20 knots through the middle part of next week.
Periods of showers and thunderstorms, leading to locally higher
winds and seas, are possible beginning on Sunday and continuing
through midweek.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 337 AM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

The main fire weather concern is high dispersion this afternoon
across much of the area inland from the coast. Pockets of high
dispersion are possible mainly in the FL counties on Saturday,
with the potential for widespread high dispersion again Sunday.
Fairly dry today and Saturday, except for chance of afternoon
thunderstorm in the Southeast FL Big Bend. More typical summer
showers and thunderstorms may return Sunday afternoon. The heat
will reach unhealthy levels Friday into this weekend, as highs
range from 95 to around 100 degrees, with heat indices around
100 to 105 this weekend.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 337 AM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Below normal rainfall is forecast over the next week with
average amounts less than one inch, highest near the coast.
Streamflows is also average to below average. There are no
flooding concerns over the next week.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   96  74  99  75 /   0   0   0  10
Panama City   95  77  94  78 /  10   0  10  10
Dothan        96  74  98  75 /   0   0  10   0
Albany        95  73  98  75 /   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      95  72  99  74 /  10   0  20   0
Cross City    97  71  97  73 /  30  20  40  20
Apalachicola  91  78  90  79 /  10   0   0  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ114-115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LF
SHORT TERM...LF
LONG TERM....LF
AVIATION...Haner
MARINE...LF
FIRE WEATHER...LF
HYDROLOGY...KR