356
FXUS63 KTOP 290540
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1240 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few (less than 15% chance) random showers over western areas
  this afternoon and into Wednesday.

- Beginning later half of Thursday through Monday will see the
  best rain and storm chances for this forecast period with
  Thursday looking like the highest chance period around 60-70%.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 210 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024

Currently, satellite and upper air data show a longwave trough with
associated axis shifting through the eastern Great Lakes region and
through the eastern seaboard. A minor embedded shortwave is working
around the wester periphery of this larger feature into the western
Great Lakes region where showers and a few isolated storms continue.
Continuing to the West, a sharp ridge is building over the northern
Rockies into central Canada. Another deep Pacific low pressure
system and associated longwave trough is situated along the western
Canadian shoreline. Over the southern Plains, an MCS continues to
track into the lower MS Valley region with a large outflow evident
into southern and southwestern TX. Subtropical moisture continues to
stream over northern Mexico into extreme southern TX into the Gulf
of Mexico region. A few isolated storms continue from northwest KS
through western OK at this hour within a corridor of isentropic
upglide enhanced by returning moisture and destabilization within an
area of already steep mid level lapse rates atop the early morning
EML which likely eroded quickly as temperatures warmed rather
quickly through the morning hours.

Little change to the going forecast has been made. The trend of dry
and very pleasant conditions holds likely through tomorrow as the
mid to upper level ridge from the west continues to work east with
the southern flank moving over the area. Outside of some very subtle
isentropic upglide over central areas once again early tomorrow into
midday mostly sunny and dry conditions are expected.

By late Thursday, the Pacific system off the Canadian coast will dig
into the northern Rockies with a more negatively tilted orientation.
This probably brings a severe threat along the eastern Rockies from
north to south into the High Plains region. Southwest flow over the
central Rockies will aid in deepening a lee trough over western
Kansas allowing for moist advection to take place more efficiently
through the day into the evening. Storm look to develop and begin to
forward propagate east but move into a an overall lower shear
environment with limited instability further east as storms approach
the area into the late evening and overnight period. Still expect
rain and possibly some embedded storms to move into the area late.
Severe threats appear low at this time but western areas could see
beneficial moisture (60-80% chance). As showers and storms continue
to run out of momentum and work into an even less favorable
environment east chances for showers and storms generally decreases
into the overnight and early morning across the area with only about
a 60% chance over eastern zones.

Quasi-zonal flow looks to be established through the weekend into
early next week. Generally low shear and limited instability looks
to be the common atmospheric profile type in place. Weak and subtle
shortwaves likely quickly advance from west to east off and on which
keep the low chances for showers and a few storms at times through
the weekend in the forecast. Shouldn`t be a total washout but hard
to time when the actual periods of best chance POPs will be in
place.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1237 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024

Expect VFR conditions to continue for the next 24 hours. east-
southeast surface winds will increase late this morning up to 10
to 12 KTS with some minor gusts possible during the afternoon
hours. Winds should subside early this evening.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Drake
AVIATION...Gargan