Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 142101

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
401 PM CDT Wed Mar 14 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 358 PM CDT Wed Mar 14 2018

This afternoon the region was under the influence of northwesterly
flow aloft as a broad mid-level trough remained stretched across the
eastern U.S.  To the west, a mid-level ridge was located over the
Rockies, with water vapor imagery showing the next mid-level trough
diving into the Pacific Northwest.  With expansive surface high
pressure across the southeastern U.S., southwesterly surface winds
prevailed today. With the trough over the Pacific Northwest diving
southeastward across the western U.S., it was helping to shift the
ridge into the central U.S. At the surface, this pattern caused low
pressure to move eastward toward Kansas, resulting in a slight
pressure gradient developing over the area.  While these breezy
southwesterly winds supported WAA into the area, it was not
advecting much moisture. As a result, the combination of breezy
winds and very dry conditions was causing extreme fire danger
conditions across the entire outlook area.  For more details, refer
to the Fire Weather Discussion below.

Southwesterly surface winds will remain over the area tonight, so
the continued advection of warmer air will keep low temperatures in
the mid 30s to low 40s tonight.  The mid-level ridge will quickly
track eastward over the CWA tomorrow as the Pacific Northwest trough
quickly progresses toward the High Plains region. This advancing
system will push the surface low pressure further eastward into
Kansas, causing the pressure gradient to increase. As a result, have
increased winds/wind gusts for tomorrow by trending more toward
CONSMOS.  Models show a cold front extending eastward from this
advancing surface low, and this front should get hung up near the
KS/NE border for much of the day.  As a result, most of the CWA
should remain in the warm sector tomorrow with afternoon high
temperatures soaring into the upper 60s to mid/upper 70s from north
to south.  Conditions still look to be breezy and dry enough to
result in very high fire danger conditions across much of north
central to east central KS.  For more details, refer to the Fire
Weather Discussion below.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 358 PM CDT Wed Mar 14 2018

By Thursday night, models show the closed mid-level low pivoting
northeastward over Kansas into Nebraska, which will help to push the
surface low and associated cold front eastward across the CWA.
However, there are still notable model discrepancies with the timing
and tracking of this surface low and front, resulting in a 10-15F
degree spread in the forecast high temperatures amongst the models.
At this time, have stayed with a model blend for Friday high
temperatures but there is the potential for a tighter temperature
gradient to set up near the northern portion of the CWA.  This
advancing system will bring our next chance for precipitation, with
rain chances increasing late Thursday night into Friday.  As the
surface low lifts northeastward through the day, these precipitation
chances will become more focused across far north central to
northeast KS, where some wrap-around precipitation may continue to
impact those locations into Friday evening.  With model soundings
showing some weak elevated instability aloft, have kept the mention
of thunder for Thursday night.

Conditions will dry out by Saturday as surface high pressure moves
into the area behind the exiting system.  Models show limited CAA
behind the front, so expect Saturday temperatures to be
near/slightly above the seasonal normals with highs in the mid 50s
to low 60s.

Over the weekend, models show another strong shortwave trough
developing within the expansive mid-level low that will remain
anchored over the Pacific Northwest. This trough looks to deepen
over the Rockies and swing northeastward over Kansas Sunday night
into Monday, which ultimately will help to push another surface low
and associated cold front across Kansas.  At this time, models show
a surface low near the TX/OK panhandles lifting northeastward into
the CWA on Sunday, bringing the next chance for precipitation
through Monday and even into Monday evening.  With some weak
instability present, a few isolated to scattered thunderstorms will
be possible Sunday afternoon/evening.  A surge of colder air can be
expected behind this exiting system, with highs dropping into the
50s through the early half of next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Wed Mar 14 2018

For the 18z TAFs, VFR conditions are expected through the period.
Southwesterly winds may be gusty at times this afternoon before
diminishing this evening. As a strong 40-45kt LLJ extends over
the area, low-level wind shear concerns increase by late this
evening through mid Thursday morning. Winds will start shifting to
the southeast by mid/late Thursday morning as surface low pressure
advances eastward into the area.


Issued at 358 PM CDT Wed Mar 14 2018

With surface low pressure beginning to advance into western Kansas,
an increased pressure gradient developed over the CWA, causing
southwesterly winds to gust upwards of 20-30mph through this
afternoon.  These breezy winds supported decent WAA with afternoon
high temperatures rising into the 60s and near 70 degrees.  However,
these southwesterly winds were not advecting much in the way of
moisture, with dewpoints staying in the teens to low 20s.  As a
result, RH values plunged into the 15-20% range this afternoon. With
these extreme fire danger conditions in place, a Red Flag Warning
remains in effect for the entire outlook area through 7 PM today.

As surface low pressure advances eastward into the outlook area
tomorrow, winds Thursday morning will shift from southwest to
southeast.  With a tighter pressure gradient in place, these winds
should be sustained at 10-15 mph with gusts of 20-30mph.  These
southeasterly winds will actually advect more moisture into the area
tomorrow with dewpoints rising into the 30s and possibly near 40
degrees.  However, with such mild temperatures, conditions will
still be dry tomorrow with minimum RH values in the mid-20 to low-30
percent range.  The combination of the warm, dry conditions and
breezy winds will cause very high fire danger conditions across much
of north central to east central Kansas Thursday afternoon.


Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ008>012-



SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...Hennecke
FIRE WEATHER...Hennecke is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.