Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 122318

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
618 PM CDT Mon Mar 12 2018

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Mon Mar 12 2018

Northwest flow aloft brings a weakening upper wave across the area
tonight with some attendant mid and high cloud. Main challenge
with this is temperatures as surface ridging remains in place with
light winds, so just how much radiational cooling can take place.
Trended lows a bit higher with more cloud anticipated. Secondary
surge of Canadian high pressure pushes in Tuesday to keep highs in
the upper 40s to lower 50s. This airmass is somewhat dryer and
may bring a few hours of Very High fire danger to southern and
western locations despite winds remaining on the light side.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Mon Mar 12 2018

Fire weather conditions are the main concern Wednesday and
Thursday as the upper patterns shifts east with a modest upper
ridge moving overhead as a deep upper low enters the Pacific
Northwest. Southwest low-level flow brings warmer air in for these
days with steadily rising dewpoints. Some discrepancies exist
with winds and RH increases, but Wednesday looks to be the most
worrisome day for fire weather as moisture is delayed, with Very
High levels looking more likely for the bulk of the area. Model
differences increase Thursday with some potential for a surface
low to push into central Kansas for notable wind differences.
Humidity levels should be slightly higher for somewhat reduced
fire weather.

Isentropic upglide increases across the area northeast of the
surface low Thursday night into Friday for decent precip chances,
though deep moisture continues to be lacking. Could be enough
instability aloft for some thunder as well. The surface low track
is shifting south and the 12Z GFS and ECMWF are keeping temps much
cooler. There remains wide spread in ensemble data and trending
temps lower seems in order at this range. The western trough
makes an eastward push this weekend though spreads continue to
increase. There likely be at least one period of fairly high
precip chances, and go along with most guidance for this to be
Sunday night. Temperature profiles keep this precip in liquid


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 608 PM CDT Mon Mar 12 2018

VFR conditions expected through the period.




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