National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS63 KTOP 140908
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
408 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near record high temperatures today in the upper 80s and low 90s.
  Unseasonably warm conditions continue through Wednesday.

- Best chances (80%) for storms, including the potential for some
  severe storms, comes overnight Monday into Tuesday.

- Additional chances for storms late morning into the afternoon
  Tuesday, although uncertainty is high in details with this
  round.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 408 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

Broad mid-level ridging is in control of the central CONUS early
this morning with a strong trough moving onto the western coast.
Winds have largely stayed around 10mph with some gusts overnight
helping to keep temperatures on the mild side in the 60s as of 4AM.
Winds weaken over the next couple of hours as a weak surface trough
moves into the area. Another day of well-above normal temperatures
is expected as forecast soundings suggest mixing to around 850mb
again this afternoon which, with plentiful sunshine, will translate
to highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. Relative humidity values fall
to 20-30 percent this afternoon, lowest across north central Kansas,
but light winds will limit overall fire danger.

Attention turns to the potent western trough as it advances eastward
tonight into Monday and ejects across the Plains Monday into
Tuesday. Models have shown more consistency in the timing of this
feature leading to increasing confidence in some of the key details
with this system. A deepening surface low on the lee of the Rockies
slowly drifts east-northeast across Nebraska through the day Monday
with a sharpening dryline extending through central Kansas to
western Oklahoma. Dewpoints rise into the low to mid 60s by Monday
afternoon and evening as a perturbation ahead of the main wave
advances across eastern Kansas. Theta-E advection along and behind a
northward advancing warm front could support some elevated showers
and storms during the afternoon/evening although current guidance
suggests best chances for afternoon/evening storms is northeast of
the local area.

Storms are more likely (80% chance) late Monday into Tuesday morning
when forcing from the upper wave arrives. Overall convective
initiation and morphology remains uncertain, but strong ascent
favors line segments or clusters of storms forming west and south of
the area and moving into the CWA. Even with the unfavorable timing
of storms, the environment will remain supportive of severe storms
overnight especially considering the increasing shear as the trough
approaches. Damaging wind gusts and large hail will be the main
hazards although elongation and some curving of the low-level
hodograph overnight supports a low tornado threat.

The timing of the trough has the dryline moving east through
northeast Kansas during the daytime hours on Tuesday. Model
consensus progs the dryline to be across far eastern Kansas by
midday with sufficient instability and shear ahead of this boundary
to support additional strong to severe storms. However, uncertainty
increases with this round of convection as the severity and location
of storms will be dependent on how the morning convection evolves
and how quickly destabilization occurs. Winds strengthen Tuesday as
well given the proximity of the surface low and could approach
advisory levels.

The system finally pulls northeast late Tuesday leading to a dry day
Wednesday before a strong cold front pushes through Thursday,
bringing another chance for showers and storms to the area along
with much cooler air to end next week. Lows are forecast to reach
the 30s with highs in the 50s and 60s Friday through the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1224 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

VFR conditions persist. Gusts at KFOE/KMHK continue through 10z
or so which will limit LLWS conditions. Lighter winds at KTOP
keep LLWS more of a concern through 11z. Winds stay light
through the day today with a switch in direction to the east-
northeast by late morning or early afternoon.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Updated at 408 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

              Record High Temps      Forecast High Temps

April 14    92 in Topeka (2006)         91 in Topeka
            90 in Concordia (2002)      92 in Concordia

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Flanagan
AVIATION...Flanagan
CLIMATE...Flanagan