022
FXUS64 KTSA 030030
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
730 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of tonight)
Issued at 725 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

The MCS that moved through southeast OK earlier this afternoon and
evening is on it`s way out. An area of moderate rainfall in the
trailing stratiform region (as well as a few sporadic lightning
strikes) will move east and out of the area by 9 PM or so.
Conditions are then expected to remain quiet and dry for most
areas into the overnight hours.

There is a boundary along the northern track of the earlier MCS
with warmer and more humid (and therefore more unstable) air from
roughly Tulsa down through Fort Smith. Areas to the north and east
of this boundary will have a better chance of shower and
thunderstorm development overnight as another wave of showers and
storms moves into the area. CAM guidance mostly targets this same
area. The main impacts would be gusty winds, heavy rain, and
lightning. Low temperatures will range from the mid 60s to the low
70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Sunday)
Issued at 156 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

The ongoing active weather pattern looks to persist into early to
mid week, followed by a couple of quieter days late week and an
increasingly active next weekend.

Showers and thunderstorms should be ongoing across parts of
southeast Oklahoma and into western Arkansas at daybreak Monday,
which should continue to move eastward through the remainder of
the morning. Any redevelopment in the afternoon looks to mainly
focus across southeast Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas, if the
mid level disturbance has not shifted northeast of the area by
then. In general, decreasing shower and thunderstorm chances can
be expected Monday afternoon and evening as the disturbance pulls
away. There may be an uptick in coverage early Tuesday morning as
another disturbance moves through quickly on the heels of the
previous one.

The most notable shower and thunderstorm chances remain likely to
arrive Tuesday night and into Wednesday morning in response to a
front moving into the region from the north. High instability to
the south of the front and sufficient deep layer shear will
support a threat for severe weather, especially during the evening
hours Tuesday.

The quieter period will arrive late week behind the front,
persisting through Friday. Northwest flow aloft next weekend will
support overnight thunderstorm complexes that develop in the High
Plains moving into the area, beginning Friday night and early
Saturday morning.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 639 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

MCS across southeast OK pushing away from KMLC but some lightning
in the trailing stratiform region still likely for an hour more.
Otherwise VFR conditions expected through 09Z with winds south-
southeast below 10kt. Latest hi- res guidance continues to suggest
warm advection showers and storms developing across northeast OK
toward daybreak with some added support for activity moving out of
KS with support from MCV or a weak shortwave. Kept broad Prob30
group for northeast OK terminals with convection expected to
eventually move into western AR with time. Outside of convection,
MVFR conditions expected to develop at KMLC by mid morning as warm
advection returns on back side of MCS. Ceilings expected to lift
and scatter out in the afternoon across eastern OK in wake of the
storms with continued low VFR ceiling remaining in northwest AR
immediately in their wake.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   70  83  71  87 /  40  40  30  10
FSM   72  86  72  87 /  50  50  50  20
MLC   69  83  71  86 /  50  40  30  10
BVO   69  82  68  85 /  40  30  30  10
FYV   69  83  68  84 /  30  60  40  20
BYV   68  83  67  84 /  20  60  40  30
MKO   70  81  71  85 /  30  40  40  10
MIO   69  81  68  84 /  30  50  40  20
F10   67  82  70  86 /  30  40  20  10
HHW   69  83  71  86 /  70  50  20  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....22
AVIATION...24