Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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127 FXUS64 KTSA 222337 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 637 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (The rest of this afternoon ) Issued at 132 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024 A surface boundary is slowly working its way south across far southeast OK. Thunderstorms, any of which could become severe, will continue to develop at times through the remainder of the day near and north of this boundary. All severe hazards will be possible near the boundary, with hail being the primary hazard north of the boundary. North of I-40, elevated storms may also pop up at times. The severe threat will be lower, but not zero, with marginally severe hail possible in any stronger storms. Areas of heavy rainfall will occur with any storms, so the Flood Watch for southeast OK and parts of west-central AR will continue through the afternoon to account for this threat. Overnight, scattered showers and storms will continue to develop at times, especially for southeast OK and northwest AR. But confidence is low on exact timing and strength as CAM guidance has been inconsistent. The overall severe threat may trend down somewhat tonight, but isolated severe storms are still possible. Lows will range from the upper 50s to mid 60s most areas. && .LONG TERM... (Tonight through Wednesday) Issued at 132 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024 The same general pattern will remain locked in through Saturday with a deep trough across the northwest and a ridge in the southeast. As shortwaves periodically rotate through they will bring lift and enhanced wind shear over an exceptionally moist and unstable lower atmosphere. One such shortwave will move through Thursday. It is unclear whether there will be sufficient low level convergence and lift to support convective initiation, but the upper levels show good divergence as the area will be in the left exit region of a jet. CAM guidance is uncertain on timing and intensity of convection, but scattered thunderstorms will likely develop. A few of the storms will become severe with wind and hail being the more likely threats, though an isolated tornado may also occur. A weak boundary moves through Friday morning, and storms should continue at times through then. Presumably storm coverage will decrease somewhat behind the boundary, but with plenty of moisture and instability still in place, storm activity can`t be ruled out. The best chance for storms Friday will be over the higher terrain of eastern OK and northwest AR. Highs will be below normal Thursday, generally in the upper 70s to lower 80s, increasing to the low to mid 80s Thursday. A stronger shortwave and associated surface cold front will move in Saturday. Overall this looks to be the most likely day for widespread thunderstorms and severe weather within the forecast period. The environment will support all severe hazards within the stronger storms. Ridging builds in west of the area Sunday into early next week. With decent northwest flow and plentiful low level moisture and instability, the storm chance will not be zero, though presumably the severe weather threat should be lower than this week. Normally we see increase nocturnal MCS activity in this type of pattern, which is also increasingly common heading into June, so bumped up NBM pops a bit each day to mentionable to account for this possibility. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 635 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024 MVFR cigs will remain localized across parts of NW AR for the early part of the TAF period, with MVFR/IFR cigs becoming widespread after 06z-09z. At this time, uncertainty will preclude any prevailing TSRA this issuance, but will include VCTS at KMLC for part of the overnight period. IFR cigs should rise to MVFR categories by late morning, with MVFR cigs prevailing there and at the remaining sites through the rest of the valid period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 64 81 68 84 / 30 30 40 20 FSM 67 84 69 87 / 70 50 60 20 MLC 65 83 68 86 / 60 60 40 20 BVO 59 80 64 82 / 20 30 40 20 FYV 63 82 65 83 / 70 60 60 30 BYV 62 81 65 83 / 70 40 50 30 MKO 65 80 67 84 / 50 50 50 20 MIO 61 81 66 80 / 40 30 50 30 F10 64 80 67 85 / 50 60 40 20 HHW 66 82 68 87 / 80 50 50 10 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Flood Watch through Thursday evening for OKZ049-053-072>076. AR...Flood Watch through Thursday evening for ARZ019-020-029. && $$ SHORT TERM...06 LONG TERM....06 AVIATION...23