390
FXUS64 KTSA 190548
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1248 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 724 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

Storms that developed off the dryline this afternoon should
dissipate west of the forecast area this evening. By late tonight
into Thursday morning, guidance continues to indicate at least
low potential for some sunrise surprise high-based showers and
storms close to the KS border to the north and west of Tulsa. Will
maintain low PoPs in this area. No noticeable changes were made
to the going forecast.

Lacy

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight)
Issued at 210 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

Mid level moist axis and influence of passing weak wave will
likely support isolated late night into early morning convection
which may spread into portions of NE OK. Overall coverage and
duration will keep precip chances low with any precip ending by
mid / late morning. Otherwise, warm overnight low temps expected
and generally 5-10 degrees above seasonal normals.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Wednesday)
Issued at 210 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

Hot and humid conditions will develop Thursday afternoon with
high temperatures 10-15 degrees above normal and dewpoints in the
upper 60s to low 70s across much of the region. A sustained
southerly wind will help, however wet bulb globe temps support a
notable increase in heat stress conditions area wide. By late
afternoon a weak sfc trough will extend through north central OK
and isolated to scattered storms could develop and spread eastward
through Thursday evening. Considerable uncertainty remains in
overall storm coverage, however an unstable and sufficiently
sheared environment will support potential for strong multicells
or transient supercells. Deeply mixed subcloud layers will favor
stronger outflow winds and, once the boundary layer decouples, a
steady downtrend in severe potential is likely.

Heat impacts continue on Friday with good agreement on high
temperatures trending upward and approaching record levels at
some locations. Focusing boundaries for storms are expected to
remain west and north of the local region through Friday evening.
Low chance of storm outflows propagating into NW AR by early
Saturday with a corresponding chance of storms, however this
scenario remains a low potential.

Hot temps continue Saturday while low storm chances remain across
NE OK through NW AR in proximity to the stalled remnant frontal
zone. As the stronger wave approaches from the west the focus
becomes the associated cold front which makes slow but steady
progress eastward. A window from late Saturday night through
Sunday night appears most likely for the frontal passage across
the forecast area. Guidance continues to vary considerably on the
coverage of precip associated with the frontal passage, and for
now, chances will be kept low. Temperatures will finally begin to
cool down Sunday and more so Monday through Tuesday. Some guidance
does show considerably cooler temps for early next week and will
be a trend to follow. Otherwise the pattern may remain supportive
of rain chances into the middle of next week pending the magnitude
of the developing central CONUS trough.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1248 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

Scattered to broken mid/high clouds are expected overnight across
parts of Northeast Oklahoma into far Northwest Arkansas. Isolated
showers look to be part of this cloud cover. However...with
isolated coverage will keep a mention out of TAFs...though KBVO
would have the higher of the isolated potential late tonight/early
morning Thursday. Across the rest of the CWA tonight...mostly
clear to scattered high clouds are forecast. During the day
Thursday...scattered to broken mid and high clouds should become
common over most of the CWA. Thunderstorm chances increase during
the afternoon into evening hours...with the greater potential
across Northeast Oklahoma. Thus...will add Prob30 groups for
timing at KBVO/KTUL/KRVS. By mid evening...much of the
thunderstorm development is forecast to weaken with scattered to
broken high clouds remaining overnight over the CWA. Winds through
the period start out between east and southerly and become breezy
out of the south during the day Thursday. These winds should
weaken Thursday evening. VFR conditions outside of any
thunderstorm activity are currently forecast for the TAF period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   75  99  76  97 /  30   0   0  10
FSM   72  97  75  96 /  20   0   0  10
MLC   73  98  74  97 /  20   0   0   0
BVO   69 100  72  99 /  30   0  10  20
FYV   70  95  71  92 /  20   0   0  10
BYV   70  95  72  92 /  20  10  10  20
MKO   73  96  74  95 /  20   0   0  10
MIO   72  97  74  95 /  20   0  10  20
F10   73  98  73  97 /  20   0   0   0
HHW   71  97  72  95 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...20