581
FXUS64 KTSA 290025
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
725 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 724 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024

The remnants of a small MCS that tracked across western KS this
afternoon could bring some measurable rain to the northwest of
Tulsa in the near-term. Otherwise, we`ll have to wait and see what
survives from the storms out west, which isn`t expected to be much
given the weak instability in place over our area. Storms over the
TX South Plains will likely organize into a southeastward moving
MCS across TX tonight, and will more than likely miss our area to
the south. Thus...only low PoPs/thunder probs were carried into
our area after midnight.

Lacy

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight)
Issued at 216 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024

Bulk of shower and storm activity gas remained to the
west this afternoon, though some activity is noted across
parts of NE OK. Rain and storm chances will continue tonight
with any weak waves traversing the area in W-NW flow aloft.
Slightly higher PoPs will be focused across the western portion
of the CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Tuesday)
Issued at 216 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024

Deep gulf moisture will continue to feed into the area
through Friday while the upper pattern remains active. As is
often seen, model spread regarding timing and placement of an any
individual upper wave problematic, so including PoPs everywhere
in most if not all periods of the forecast cycle is reasonable
given the upper pattern. At this time, best chances for rain/storms
appear to be late Thursday night into Friday as a more notable
upper wave moves through. Additional, but lower chances for rain
and storms will continue through the weekend and into next week as
little overall change in the upper pattern is expected.
Widespread severe weather is not expected over the next several
days, though an isolated strong to marginally severe storm is
possible.


&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 634 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024

VFR should prevail at all TAF sites this evening and overnight
tonight, with mostly dry weather and scattered high clouds.
Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase again by mid-morning
Wednesday for eastern OK terminals and late morning/early
afternoon for the AR terminals as a weak mid/upper level wave
moves across eastern OK and northwest AR. Ceilings should remain
above 3000 feet agl and VFR should generally prevail through much
of the daytime. However, heavier showers/storms that roll over or
approach any of the terminals may drop cigs/vsbys briefly to
MVFR/IFR. Winds remain light and variable through this evening
and night, then turn east/southeasterly and increase a bit during
the daytime on Wednesday.

Mejia

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   64  78  63  79 /  20  50  20  30
FSM   66  81  65  79 /  10  60  20  20
MLC   64  79  63  78 /  20  70  20  30
BVO   59  78  59  79 /  20  40  10  30
FYV   60  80  60  78 /  10  60  20  20
BYV   60  77  58  78 /  10  50  10  20
MKO   64  78  63  78 /  20  60  20  30
MIO   60  78  59  79 /  10  40  10  30
F10   64  77  62  78 /  20  60  20  40
HHW   65  79  65  78 /  30  70  20  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...30
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...67