Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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112 FXUS64 KTSA 231841 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 141 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (The rest of this afternoon and tonight) Issued at 135 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 A mixture of clouds and sun will prevail through the remainder of the afternoon. Highs will max out in the mid 80s. As we progress later in the afternoon and into the overnight hours the chance of storms will increase as a weak upper level feature passes by. The probability of storms is relatively modest at 15-40% for most areas due to a capping inversion aloft and minimal low level forcing. But if storms can get going they could very easily become severe. The two most likely cases for initiation are 1.) along the dry line in western OK and 2.) deeper into the warm sector in southeast OK. Accordingly, the best chance of storms will be along the western edge of the CWA and southeast OK up through west- central AR. As of now, most models kill the storms before they impact much of northeast OK and northwest AR, but its possible stronger storms move into these areas as well (15-25% chance). The most likely hazard for storms today will be hail and wind. Lingering storms are expected to trend down towards the second half of the night. Low temperatures will be mild and mostly in the upper 60s to low 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Thursday) Issued at 135 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 With a warm and humid airmass in place, plentiful moisture and instability will be present Friday morning. Meanwhile, a weak surface cold front will move through a sheared environment, increasing forced ascent. CAM guidance has mostly shown weak storms developing along the front during the morning, with more substantial activity in the afternoon or evening when the front is into southeast OK/west- central AR. With that said, considerable uncertainty remains with respect to how quickly the cold front advances, and it is possible that storms could form over a greater portion of the area if the front is a bit slower. Either way, any storms that do develop, but especially during the afternoon or evening, would have the potential of becoming severe. Once again, hail and wind would be the most likely storm threats. The bigger threat, however, will come Saturday as many severe weather ingredients will come together at the right time and in the right way. Extreme instability with MLCAPE in excess of 3000 J/Kg, very strong speed and directional wind shear, good upper level divergence, and a surface forcing mechanism (cold front) will all be present. Storms will form along the front as it moves in later Saturday. In such an environment, these storms will most likely become severe, some significantly severe. With low LCLs and good SRH, tornado development will be possible, especially as the LLJ increases towards sunset. This will be true with the initial discrete cells, but also from a QLCS perspective as storms become linear later on. The high CAPE and dry midlevels will also support large to very large hail and damaging winds. Additionally, CAMs suggest that areas of heavy rainfall will occur, so flash flooding will also be a threat. Saturday will be a day to be especially weather aware! In terms of timing, late afternoon or evening appears to be the main window across Oklahoma, with evening or early overnight hours for Arkansas. A few storms could linger into Sunday, but overall it will be a welcome break from the action. Sunday and Monday will both be warm and mostly dry with highs in the 80s to near 90F in some spots. A large area of high pressure will build west of the region into next week, inducing northwest flow. Ensemble guidance is in relatively good agreement that daily nocturnal rain chances will develop as MCSs dive into the area. Confidence is relatively high in this general idea but the details of these MCSs are notoriously hard to predict. The frequent storm activity will keep high temperatures from warming too much, mostly in the mid 80s, with lows in the mid 60s. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1230 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Mix of VFR to MVFR conditions ongoing across the local region and this is likely to remain the case through the afternoon as ceilings persist but slowly rise. Scattered showers are also likely to persist with a few thunderstorms possible, however chances remain low for impacts at any specific terminal. Additional storms will attempt to spread into and / or across the forecast area this evening and overnight. Coverage and duration of these storms remains uncertain and forecasts will attempt to show the low potential. Otherwise expect MVFR ceilings to again develop and expand late tonight through tomorrow morning. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 69 85 63 88 / 30 20 10 20 FSM 70 87 70 90 / 50 30 30 10 MLC 71 87 67 88 / 30 20 20 20 BVO 67 83 55 87 / 30 20 10 20 FYV 68 83 61 86 / 40 30 30 10 BYV 67 83 62 86 / 30 30 30 10 MKO 68 84 64 87 / 30 30 20 20 MIO 68 82 59 86 / 20 40 10 20 F10 68 85 63 87 / 30 20 20 20 HHW 68 86 68 87 / 50 20 30 20 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...06 LONG TERM....06 AVIATION...07