206
FXUS64 KTSA 230924
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
424 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 357 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024

A complex of showers and thunderstorms has developed early this
morning from southeast Oklahoma into western Arkansas. Most of
this activity will exit the area later this morning, but there
will remain some potential for at least scattered showers and
storms just about anywhere this afternoon. Any storms that do
occur will have the potential to be strong to severe, with large
hail and damaging winds being the main threats. The flood watch
will remain in effect today given the ongoing activity and the
potential for later redevelopment.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 357 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024

Showers and storms will remain possible overnight, but coverage
may remain somewhat limited. A cold front will move across the
area Friday afternoon and evening, with at least widely scattered
storms expected to develop along this boundary by late afternoon from
northwest Arkansas into southeast Oklahoma.

The greatest severe weather risk during this forecast period will
come late Saturday afternoon and especially Saturday evening as a
strong upper level disturbance moves into the area. A very
unstable airmass will be in place by late Saturday afternoon and
evening, and storms that develop in central Oklahoma will quickly
become severe and move into our forecast area. All severe hazards
will be possible with these storms, with the severe weather threat
possibly diminishing some by late evening into the overnight
hours as the storms move into northwest Arkansas.

A pattern change to a northwest flow aloft will take place late
this weekend into next week. We will start off next week dry, but
weak disturbances in the northwest flow aloft may result in daily
MCS activity beginning as early as late Tuesday night and
continuing for much of the rest of the week. Late night and
morning will be the most likely time frame for any precipitation
next week. Have kept pops low for now, but higher than the nearly
non-existant NBM pops.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1222 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024

Coverage of showers and thunderstorms expected overnight with
lowering ceilings, primarily in the MVFR category. Confidence
regarding finer details remains quite low through the period, but
in general, expect MVFR conditions to transition to VFR early to
mid afternoon. Additional thunderstorms are possible late this
afternoon and this evening, though timing and extent remain very
much in question.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   83  69  85  63 /  30  40  10  10
FSM   84  70  88  69 /  50  40  30  20
MLC   82  69  87  67 /  40  50  20  20
BVO   83  65  83  55 /  20  40  10   0
FYV   82  65  83  61 /  40  30  30  20
BYV   83  66  83  62 /  20  30  40  20
MKO   82  68  85  65 /  40  40  20  10
MIO   83  67  82  58 /  20  30  30  10
F10   81  67  85  64 /  40  40  20  10
HHW   83  68  87  68 /  50  50  30  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch through this evening for OKZ049-053-072>076.

AR...Flood Watch through this evening for ARZ019-020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...14