613
FXUS64 KTSA 231603
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1103 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of today )
Issued at 1051 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024

Pronounced boundary currently extends from approximately Okmulgee
to Poteau with scattered showers recently developing along this
corridor. A more notable region of boundary layer recovery is
ongoing across N TX and will eventually spread northward along the
sharpening dryline over western OK by mid afternoon. Regarding
near term forcing and possible storm development, weak but
persistent warm advection atop the boundary through E OK may be
sufficient to support isolated to scattered storms through the
afternoon though uncertainty remains high. Further south and west,
forcing is expected to be stronger and thus storm initiation
chances appear higher within the stronger instability axis. As
these storms develop then motions could take them into the
forecast area by late afternoon into the evening hours. The
background environment remains unstable and sheared both for any
elevated storms and certainly for more surface based storms. This
maintains a risk of severe weather through the evening with the
overall idea being lesser coverage of severe potential than has
occurred the last two days. Updated forecast will adjust for
boundary place and resultant precip coverage trends while
incorporating minor sky cover adjustments.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 357 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024

Showers and storms will remain possible overnight, but coverage
may remain somewhat limited. A cold front will move across the
area Friday afternoon and evening, with at least widely scattered
storms expected to develop along this boundary by late afternoon from
northwest Arkansas into southeast Oklahoma.

The greatest severe weather risk during this forecast period will
come late Saturday afternoon and especially Saturday evening as a
strong upper level disturbance moves into the area. A very
unstable airmass will be in place by late Saturday afternoon and
evening, and storms that develop in central Oklahoma will quickly
become severe and move into our forecast area. All severe hazards
will be possible with these storms, with the severe weather threat
possibly diminishing some by late evening into the overnight
hours as the storms move into northwest Arkansas.

A pattern change to a northwest flow aloft will take place late
this weekend into next week. We will start off next week dry, but
weak disturbances in the northwest flow aloft may result in daily
MCS activity beginning as early as late Tuesday night and
continuing for much of the rest of the week. Late night and
morning will be the most likely time frame for any precipitation
next week. Have kept pops low for now, but higher than the nearly
non-existant NBM pops.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 601 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024

Cluster of showers and thunderstorms continues to move across
southeast OK and west central AR, but should mostly be east of TAF
locations by 12z. Temporary break in low ceilings across part of
eastern OK in the wake of storms, but this should fill back in
over the next couple of hours, and most locations should see MVFR
ceilings into the early afternoon. Potential for additional
showers and storms remains uncertain the rest of the period, but
some threat should exist across eastern OK this afternoon and
elsewhere through the evening. MVFR ceilings could return to at
least eastern OK toward the end of the period, with LLWS
developing.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   83  69  85  63 /  30  40  10  10
FSM   84  70  88  69 /  30  40  30  20
MLC   82  69  87  67 /  40  50  20  20
BVO   83  65  83  55 /  20  40  10   0
FYV   82  65  83  61 /  20  30  30  20
BYV   83  66  83  62 /  10  30  40  20
MKO   82  68  85  65 /  30  40  20  10
MIO   83  67  82  58 /  10  30  30  10
F10   81  67  85  64 /  40  40  20  10
HHW   83  68  87  68 /  30  50  30  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...14