566
FXUS64 KTSA 171931
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
231 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 206 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

Still a considerable amount of stratocu covering eastern OK and
western AR this afternoon. Expectation remains for this to break
up and dissipate tonight with patchy fog possible in the valley
areas of northwest AR and possibly southeast OK. Any significant
reductions likely to remain quite localized however. High plains
convection forced by the ejecting trough through the Central
Rockies should remain well to our northwest through tonight.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Tuesday)
Issued at 206 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

Main story for the next few days will be the return of much above
normal temperatures as the Southern Plains remain under the ridge
portion of a blocking pattern. Data continues to support daytime
highs warming well into the 90s by Thursday/Friday, and parts of
northeast OK approaching 100 both days. Does not appear dew
points will increase too significantly, thus at this time do not
expect a need for heat advisories.

A second upper trough now approaching the west coast will follow
a slightly more southern trajectory than the current system,
though the brunt of forcing still should remain north. Still this
could offer up some relief from the heat by the weekend as a
frontal boundary is potentially forced through the area by the
beginning of next week. Timing is still uncertain with relevant
features, and the forecast will continue to reflect the NBM with
low-end chance of thunderstorms beginning late Saturday and
continuing into next week, with temperatures trending more toward
seasonal average.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1127 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

SCT-BKN clouds in the 2-4 kft layer will thin somewhat, but
continue into the afternoon, finally clearing out this evening. No
rain is expected. Winds will be light and mostly out of the
southeast today, becoming nearly calm overnight, and then shifting
to southerly on Wednesday.

There is a chance that low clouds may redevelop Wednesday
morning, but they should not be as persistent or thick as was
observed this morning, with ceilings either not developing or
only briefly.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   68  91  72  97 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   67  89  69  94 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   67  92  71  97 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   65  93  68  98 /   0  10  10  10
FYV   63  87  66  91 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   62  88  65  92 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   66  88  69  94 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   65  90  68  94 /   0   0   0   0
F10   66  91  71  96 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   67  90  69  95 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...06