198
FXUS64 KTSA 180528
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1228 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of tonight)
Issued at 839 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

Showers and thunderstorms across the eastern half of the CWA are
finally winding down and should completely dissipate within an
hour or two. Conditions will be quiet for the remainder of the
evening. Overnight, areas of fog are expected to develop,
especially near areas that had rain today. Where fog does develop,
it will likely persist until after sunrise. Low temperatures will
mainly be in the upper 50s to low 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Friday)
Issued at 127 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

We dry out and warm up for the weekend. We`ll likely see the first
90 degree high temps for 2024. There`s a decent signal that storms
will come off the dryline on Sunday afternoon well to our west,
and some of this activity may survive into NE OK Sunday night in a
weakened state. Capping looks stronger on Monday along the
dryline, so the focus shifts to a sagging front across KS. Storm
activity should stay north of the state line thru Monday night. As
the front sinks slowly southeast on Tuesday, storm chances will
increase across the region. Exact evolution remains uncertain, but
chances of severe weather will go up with strong flow aloft and
favorable late May thermodynamics. Storm chances continue
Wednesday with the front, mainly over the eastern and southern
portions of the forecast area. Storm chances will continue thru
the end of the week.

Lacy

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1227 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

Patchy fog may reduce visibilities at some sites through early
morning, otherwise VFR conditions will prevail through the
forecast period with light winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   88  64  90  70 /   0   0   0  30
FSM   87  65  91  69 /  10   0   0   0
MLC   88  64  90  69 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   87  60  89  66 /   0   0   0  40
FYV   84  57  88  64 /  10   0   0  10
BYV   83  60  88  66 /  10   0   0  10
MKO   85  63  88  67 /   0   0   0  10
MIO   84  61  87  67 /   0   0   0  20
F10   85  63  88  68 /   0   0   0  10
HHW   86  64  88  68 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...05