855
FXUS64 KTSA 191138
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
638 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

A few showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm may affect
parts of northeast Oklahoma this morning, but most places will
remain dry. Unseasonably hot temperatures will prevail, with
afternoon highs in the 90s. Heat index values may briefly reach
near 105 in a few spots this afternoon, but the coverage and
duration of such values look limited enough to preclude any heat
headlines at this time.

At least isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop by late
afternoon near and east of a weak surface trough across north
central Oklahoma, with these storms moving into parts of northeast
Oklahoma towards the end of the day. Damaging winds and marginally
severe hail will be possible with the strongest storms.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

Storm coverage remains uncertain into the evening hours, but at
least a few isolated storms are likely to continue for awhile and
propagate south before dissipating by late evening. Friday looks
like another unseasonably hot day, likely even hotter than today,
with afternoon heat index values again near 105 in some places.
Late afternoon and evening storm chances Friday remain low...below
mentionable levels...but non-zero.

Saturday will be another hot day, with low shower and storm
chances across northern parts of the area. Changes begin to take
place Sunday as an upper level storm system moves northeast into
the plains allowing a cold front to approach the area from the
west. Shower and storm chances will be greatest late Sunday into
Sunday night as this cold front moves across our area.

Much cooler weather will follow the passage of this front early
next week, with below normal temperatures at least for a couple
days. Low rain chances may return Tuesday night and Wednesday as a
shortwave moves across the area, but confidence in precipitation
during this time frame is low. Attention may also turn to the Gulf
of Mexico next week for the potential for tropical cyclone
development.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 638 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

Scattered to broken mid and high clouds are forecast through the
majority of the TAF period for the CWA. Ongoing showers/storms
should for the most part remain north of the CWA...though a slight
chance continues into mid morning for KBVO. With limited coverage
will keep KBVO dry for now. Greater shower/storm potentials are
forecast mid afternoon into the evening hours across Northeast
Oklahoma TAF sites...and will continue ongoing Prob30 groups for
timing. Slight chances extend into Northwest Arkansas this
evening...though with uncertainty of coverage will hold off on
mentioning the Northwest Arkansas TAFs. Much of the precip should
weaken late evening with scattered to broken high clouds common
over the CWA tonight. Outside of any thunderstorm activity...VFR
conditions are forecast through the period. Winds through the
period should become southerly for most locations with breezy
conditions this afternoon. The exception being KFSM where easterly
winds this morning and overnight tonight are forecast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   96  74  99  77 /  20  20  10  10
FSM   94  74  96  75 /  10  20  10   0
MLC   96  74  99  74 /  10  20  10   0
BVO   97  69  99  72 /  20  20  10  10
FYV   91  70  94  70 /  10  20  10  10
BYV   92  71  95  72 /  10  20  10  10
MKO   94  73  97  74 /  10  20  10   0
MIO   94  71  96  74 /  20  20  10  10
F10   96  73  99  74 /  10  20  10   0
HHW   95  71  98  72 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...20