Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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433 FXUS64 KTSA 161709 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1209 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (The rest of today ) Issued at 1025 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Developing surface low pressure to the west has tightened the pressure gradient some across the forecast area- especially for parts of NE OK where the more gusty conditions will persist into the afternoon. Temperatures are expected to rival those of yesterday and are in line with the latest trends and 12z raobs. Rest of first period elements look good as well, therefore no update is planned at this time. && .LONG TERM... (Tonight through Saturday) Issued at 256 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 The pattern will realign Monday through Wednesday as a powerful upper level ridge builds across the northeast with a deep western trough and a possibly tropical low entering into southern Texas. With lowering upper level heights across the area, high temperatures will slip a bit Monday and Tuesday, generally in the upper 80s to low 90s. Due to unusually low pressure to the north, a stiff southerly wind will develop for this period, with gusts of 25-35 mph expected. The gusty southerly winds will continue to advect moisture into the area, keeping dew points elevated. Any shower or thunderstorm activity will be limited to the higher terrain during the afternoon hours given limited forcing. A a low with deep tropical moisture will move into Texas Wednesday, moving northwestward but mostly staying west of the forecast area. A small subset of guidance (20% or so) moves it close enough to the area that a few showers or storms could pop up Wednesday to Thursday, so steered the forecast to account for this. The threat of storms during this period will mostly be confined to eastern OK. Ensemble guidance favors a strong high moving back over the area towards the end of the week, with temperatures warming and the chance of rain mostly below 10%. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1208 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 VFR TAF elements will prevail at all sites through the valid period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 75 93 75 91 / 0 0 0 0 FSM 75 92 75 90 / 0 20 0 20 MLC 73 90 73 89 / 0 0 0 10 BVO 71 93 73 91 / 0 0 0 0 FYV 71 89 70 87 / 0 20 0 20 BYV 72 90 71 88 / 0 20 0 20 MKO 73 90 74 89 / 0 0 0 10 MIO 73 91 73 89 / 0 10 0 0 F10 73 90 73 89 / 0 0 0 0 HHW 73 88 71 87 / 0 10 0 20 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...23 LONG TERM....06 AVIATION...23