105
FXUS64 KTSA 180843
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
343 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 329 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

Showers and thunderstorms in northwest Oklahoma early this morning
are expected to dissipate before reaching our area today.
Temperatures should be warmer today due to less cloudiness, with
afternoon highs generally ranging from the upper 80s to mid 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 329 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

The warming trend will continue Thursday and Friday as an upper
ridge builds overhead, with unseasonably hot afternoon high
temperatures and unseasonably warm overnight lows. Afternoon heat
index values will reach near 105 in some places both Thursday and
Friday afternoon, so it is possible that heat headlines may be
required.

A few "sunrise surprise" showers and thunderstorms may develop
late tonight and Thursday morning across parts of northeast
Oklahoma, and the CAMs suggest the potential for robust
convection to develop across northeast Oklahoma late Thursday
afternoon, with these storms possibly propagating south as far as
southeast Oklahoma Thursday evening before dissipating. As such,
have added pops for both of these time frames despite the dry NBM.

Low shower and storm chances will remain possible in the northern
part of the forecast area this weekend, and temperatures will
lower slightly as the upper ridge over the area begins to break
down. Better shower and storm chances look to occur Sunday night
as a cold front sweeps across the area. There remains considerable
model spread in the magnitude of the cooling behind this fromt for
early next week, with some models...UKMET and ICON in
particular...indicating a far more significant cooldown than what
is shown in the current forecast. We will just have to wait and
see how this all plays out.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1240 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

Scattered to broken high clouds associated with ongoing convection
over the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles to Western Kansas will continue
to spread eastward into the CWA overnight tonight. At this
time...the greater precip potential should remain west and
northwest of Northeast Oklahoma. Also overnight...patchy areas of
reduced visibility are possible and will add a tempo group to
KFYV. During the day Wednesday...scattered diurnal cumulus clouds
are again forecast to develop over the CWA and then dissipate
Wednesday evening. There may be period as clouds develop that MVFR
ceilings are possible before lifting to around 5kft for the
afternoon hours. Mostly clear to scattered high clouds are then
forecast Wednesday evening/night. Winds through the period should
vary between east and south. VFR conditions are forecast for the
majority of the TAF period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   91  72  97  75 /  10  10  30  30
FSM   89  68  93  72 /  10  10  10  20
MLC   92  71  96  73 /  10  10  10  20
BVO   94  68  98  70 /  10  20  30  30
FYV   87  63  91  69 /  10  10  10  20
BYV   88  65  92  70 /  10  10  10  20
MKO   90  69  95  73 /  10  10  20  30
MIO   89  68  93  71 /  10  10  30  30
F10   91  70  96  73 /  10  10  20  30
HHW   91  68  95  71 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...20