Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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159 FXUS64 KTSA 141707 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1207 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (The rest of today ) Issued at 1016 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Warm afternoon on tap across the forecast area. With dewpoints in the lower 70s, and expected high temps this afternoon, will go ahead and issue a heat advisory for parts of NE OK until 6 pm. Current first period elements are in line, but will update the zones to include the heat advisory headlines. Updated ZFP/PFM/AFM out shortly. NPW already sent. && .LONG TERM... (Tonight through Thursday) Issued at 255 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Saturday will be another hot day, with temperatures in the low to mid 90s and afternoon heat indices generally 95-102F. A weak shortwave trough will pass to the northwest of the area with a 10% chance of a shower or thunderstorm in portions of northeast OK and northwest AR. Sunday through Tuesday will feature more of the same with highs in the low to mid 90s and generally humid but rain-free conditions. The one exception may be portions of southeast OK and west-central AR where there is a low (10-20%) chance of a few afternoon or evening showers Monday and Tuesday. By the middle of next week an anomalously strong upper level ridge will shift into the northeast, but a trailing portion of the ridge will extend southwest into our region. This will allow for some type of tropical wave to impact southern Texas. Although we will be well removed geographically from this, some of the moisture will move north with PWAT values expected to rise. With the increased moisture and a bit of upper level flow, there will be a slight (10-30%) chance of a few showers and storms for the middle to end of next week. Ensemble cluster analysis indicates that the main factor for whether rain occurs or not is the westward extension of the upper level high across the eastern US, with roughly a third of individual ensemble members showing a favorable pattern for at least some showers in the area. High temperatures may cool slightly with the extra moisture and clouds, but will still mostly remain at or above 90F. It`s also worth mentioning that breezy southerly winds will develop for this period, as a deep western trough will encourage a stout southerly pressure gradient across the area. EPS EFI for wind shows values of 0.7 to 0.9 across the area, meaning unusually windy for this time of year. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1207 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 VFR TAF elements will prevail at all sites through the valid period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 71 94 73 94 / 0 0 0 0 FSM 74 96 73 97 / 0 0 0 0 MLC 69 94 72 94 / 0 0 0 0 BVO 68 93 71 94 / 0 0 0 0 FYV 71 92 70 94 / 10 10 0 0 BYV 71 92 71 94 / 10 10 0 0 MKO 71 93 72 94 / 0 0 0 0 MIO 71 92 72 93 / 10 10 0 0 F10 69 92 72 92 / 0 0 0 0 HHW 69 93 71 93 / 0 0 0 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Heat Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for OKZ060>062-067. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...23 LONG TERM....06 AVIATION...23