Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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480 FXUS64 KTSA 140756 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 256 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today) Issued at 255 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Quiet weather is expected for the remainder of the night with mostly clear skies, light winds, and mild conditions. The one exception might be in northwest Arkansas near the Missouri border, where a decaying cluster of storms could result in brief rain and thunder within the next hour or so. During the day today, temperatures will rise into the low to mid 90s across the area, with dew points remaining elevated in the upper 60s to lower 70s. A weak remnant boundary may allow for moisture pooling across northeast OK, leading to locally higher dew points. Afternoon heat indices will top out generally in the 97-103F range. A few areas may reach heat indices as high as 105F, but will hold off on a Heat Advisory for now given that coverage and duration of reaching advisory criteria is in question. At any rate, caution should still be taken for anybody spending extended time outside during the day today. There is a low end chance of a couple of very isolated showers or storms popping up in far northeast OK and northwest AR during the late evening. && .LONG TERM... (Tonight through Thursday) Issued at 255 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Saturday will be another hot day, with temperatures in the low to mid 90s and afternoon heat indices generally 95-102F. A weak shortwave trough will pass to the northwest of the area with a 10% chance of a shower or thunderstorm in portions of northeast OK and northwest AR. Sunday through Tuesday will feature more of the same with highs in the low to mid 90s and generally humid but rain-free conditions. The one exception may be portions of southeast OK and west-central AR where there is a low (10-20%) chance of a few afternoon or evening showers Monday and Tuesday. By the middle of next week an anomalously strong upper level ridge will shift into the northeast, but a trailing portion of the ridge will extend southwest into our region. This will allow for some type of tropical wave to impact southern Texas. Although we will be well removed geographically from this, some of the moisture will move north with PWAT values expected to rise. With the increased moisture and a bit of upper level flow, there will be a slight (10-30%) chance of a few showers and storms for the middle to end of next week. Ensemble cluster analysis indicates that the main factor for whether rain occurs or not is the westward extension of the upper level high across the eastern US, with roughly a third of individual ensemble members showing a favorable pattern for at least some showers in the area. High temperatures may cool slightly with the extra moisture and clouds, but will still mostly remain at or above 90F. It`s also worth mentioning that breezy southerly winds will develop for this period, as a deep western trough will encourage a stout southerly pressure gradient across the area. EPS EFI for wind shows values of 0.7 to 0.9 across the area, meaning unusually windy for this time of year. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1147 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 VFR conditions and light winds should prevail through the period. Ongoing thunderstorms near the Kansas border have a low to medium chance to impact BVO and will continue the TEMPO group for this potential through 07Z, as well as the TEMPO for the gusty outflow winds from the complex at TUL and RVS through 08Z. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 96 71 94 73 / 0 0 0 0 FSM 97 74 96 73 / 0 0 0 0 MLC 95 69 94 72 / 0 0 0 0 BVO 94 68 93 71 / 10 10 0 0 FYV 94 71 92 70 / 10 10 10 10 BYV 93 71 92 71 / 20 20 10 10 MKO 94 71 93 72 / 0 0 0 0 MIO 93 71 92 72 / 20 20 10 10 F10 94 69 92 72 / 0 0 0 0 HHW 93 69 93 71 / 0 0 0 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...06 LONG TERM....06 AVIATION...22