Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
311 FXUS64 KTSA 190529 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1229 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (The rest of tonight) Issued at 950 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 A few showers have moved into the northwest corner of the forecast area, and have added low pops to the forecast there for the rest of the night. The main area of showers and storms to the northwest will not affect our area, but a few light showers may continue to fester overnight. The rest of the forecast is on track at this time. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Tuesday) Issued at 150 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 A couple of isolated showers will be possible across northeast Oklahoma Wednesday morning within a zone of weak isentropic ascent which will quickly weaken by mid morning. A more focused area of isolated shower/storm chances will become possible by afternoon across northwest Arkansas and northeast Oklahoma as deep tropical moisture associated with potential tropical cyclone one in the Bay of Campeche spreads northward. A narrow axis of increased isentropic ascent associated with this moisture surge along with the diurnal heating Wednesday afternoon, should be enough for isolated to widely scattered shower development first across western Arkansas and spreading northwestward throughout the afternoon. Some elevated instability present will allow for some slight thunder chances with any thunderstorms producing gusty winds and heavy, tropical downpours. Severe weather is not expected at this point. The cloud cover and rain chances will once again help keep temperatures down somewhat tomorrow afternoon as well. The upper ridge to the northeast then begins to build back into the Southern Plains for the latter half of the workweek and especially this weekend. the result will be hot and humid conditions with very little in the way of rain chances through Sunday. Ensemble guidance does continue to indicate that the ridge will continue shifting westward into next week, becoming planted over the Desert Southwest. This will place the region under northwest flow aloft which should bring daily thunderstorm chances along with slightly cooler temperatures heading into the middle of next week. Bowlan && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1221 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Mostly quiet conditions are anticipated for the remainder of the night with just a few clouds in the 4-6 kft layer and some higher clouds at or above 15 kft. One exception to this will be for the terminals near Tulsa as well as KBVO, where clouds will be a bit thicker with some isolated light rain showers possible through 9Z or so. Coverage will be sparse with no impacts expected. During the day Wednesday, winds will again become breezy out of the south, but speeds will be lower at 10-20 kts most areas. FEW- SCT clouds are expected in the 4-6 kft layer through the day with additional mid and high clouds. A few afternoon showers and storms will pop up, especially near KMLC up to KFSM, but for now did not include mention in the TAFs as they will be very isolated. Should a storm occur, it would result in brief heavy rain and gusty outflow winds. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 92 72 91 73 / 20 0 0 0 FSM 89 72 93 72 / 20 0 0 0 MLC 89 71 90 70 / 10 0 10 0 BVO 92 69 91 69 / 20 0 0 0 FYV 89 67 91 67 / 20 0 0 0 BYV 88 67 89 67 / 20 0 0 0 MKO 89 72 90 71 / 20 0 0 0 MIO 90 69 90 70 / 20 0 0 0 F10 89 70 89 71 / 20 0 10 0 HHW 86 72 89 70 / 10 10 0 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...05 LONG TERM....04 AVIATION...06