Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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819 FXUS64 KTSA 020704 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 204 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today) Issued at 204 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024 A decaying MCS is ongoing over NW/N-Central OK this morning. The MCS maintenance composite parameter per SPC mesoanalysis suggests conditions over NE OK are not that favorable for MCS to continue across NE OK thru the morning. CAMs agree as well, showing dissipation. Nevertheless, KVNX radar shows outflow surging east and this could maintain some showers and storms into parts of NE OK. Some low PoPs were maintained thru the morning across NE OK, but this is probably overkill. As we head into the afternoon, CAMs suggest very little shower/storm coverage, with the better chances across central/western OK so went with a low PoP west of hwy 75. Lacy && .LONG TERM... (Tonight through Saturday) Issued at 204 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024 The MPAS and HRRR suggest there is much better potential tonight into Monday morning for one or more MCSs to move into the area. An MCV or convective-induced vort will likely be sliding over the region Monday morning as well. By Monday afternoon, the better rain/storm chances will be shifting east, with rain/storm chances trending lower in the wake of the MCV. PoPs Monday night have been lowered to chance across the north with a slight chance thunder prob given low confidence and lack of a convective signal coming in from the High Plains. Focus then turns to a strong shortwave trough to slide across the northern tier of states later in the week, on the nose of a powerful cross-Pacific upper jet. This system will force a formidable frontal boundary south down the Plains which will become the focus for what will likely become one or more MCSs to track southeast across the region Tuesday night into Wednesday. A reinforcing front will slide thru Thursday, bringing at least low thunder chances. The GFS and EC differ with the details beyond Thursday, but indications are that there will be some potential for more MCS activity late week on into next weekend. Lacy && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1231 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024 Some patchy fog will be possible into early this morning, with KFYV most likely to see any fog impacts. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 89 72 85 71 / 20 50 60 30 FSM 90 71 88 72 / 10 40 50 30 MLC 89 71 85 72 / 10 50 50 20 BVO 88 70 85 68 / 20 40 60 30 FYV 88 68 85 68 / 10 30 60 30 BYV 87 68 84 68 / 10 20 50 40 MKO 87 69 84 71 / 10 40 60 30 MIO 87 69 82 68 / 20 20 60 30 F10 87 70 84 70 / 10 50 60 30 HHW 85 70 84 71 / 10 60 40 10 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM....30 AVIATION...05