030
FXUS64 KTSA 011722
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1222 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of today )
Issued at 1028 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Surface obs and vis satellite indicate fog has dissipated for the
most part, thus the advisory expired as scheduled at 10 AM.
Earlier cluster of storms that was approaching western Osage Co
has also dissipated, so removed POPs through 18z. Still potential
for at least isolated storms this afternoon from north central
into southeast OK. For now the POP configuration looks good.
Updated products have been sent.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 133 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Some storms are expected to be ongoing Sunday morning across
mainly NE OK. By afternoon, coverage looks more widely scattered
with hints of a weak convective-induced vort max sliding overhead.
Another shortwave trough is expected to slide across the central
Plains Sunday/Sunday night, forcing a boundary down that will
focus a relative max in storm chances across the north and east
toward Monday morning. Outflow from these storms could fire more
activity Monday afternoon and night. After a relative lull on
Tuesday, a strong shortwave trough is expected to slide across the
north-central US toward the middle of next week on the nose of a
powerful cross-Pacific upper jet. This will force an initial
frontal boundary into the area late Tuesday into Wednesday, with
another reinforcing front pushing thru Thursday. With strong NW
flow aloft in place over the Plains south of deep cyclonic flow
centered over the Great Lakes, models are starting to suggest a
period of active nighttime MCS activity beginning Friday night.
We`ll just have to wait and see.

Lacy

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Fog has dissipated but some low MVFR ceilings linger across
northeast OK. However, VFR conditions should prevail shortly
after 18z. Isolated thunderstorms remain possible this afternoon
but still expect coverage to remain too sparse for inclusion in
the forecast. Some potential again tonight for fog, most likely
across NW AR, but not expected to be as extensive. POssible
weakening storm cluster may make a run at NE OK very early Sunday
morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   85  67  87  71 /  10  10  20  40
FSM   86  67  89  70 /   0   0  30  20
MLC   86  67  88  72 /  10   0  30  30
BVO   83  65  86  69 /  10  20  30  40
FYV   83  62  86  68 /  10   0  30  20
BYV   81  60  86  68 /   0   0  20  20
MKO   83  67  86  70 /  10  10  30  30
MIO   81  63  84  68 /   0  10  30  30
F10   85  67  86  72 /  10  10  30  40
HHW   85  67  86  71 /  20   0  30  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...14