703
FXUS64 KTSA 031542
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1042 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of today )
Issued at 1042 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Convection continued to spread east and southeast across Northeast
Oklahoma late morning along and behind a remnant outflow boundary
from previous convection out west last night. Elevated
frontogenetic forcing behind the outflow boundary was aiding in
thunderstorms extending back to the northwest to the Kansas
border. Out ahead of the boundary...additional showers/storms
associated with warm advection remained across far Southeast
Oklahoma/Northwest Arkansas and also the far northeast corner of
Oklahoma.

At this time...the strongest storms were occurring along/near the
boundary in Northeast Oklahoma with strong winds and hail the main
threats. Also...with ample amounts of moisture for the storms to
work with...a period of heavy rainfall with rain rates locally up
toward 2 inches/hr estimated via radar can be expected along this
leading line.

Through this afternoon...the line of convection is progged to move
east and southeast across the CWA. The strongest push of
convection and severe potentials should remain along the western
half of the convective line as it moves more southeast following
the greater instability axis. Locally damaging winds are expected
to become the primary threat with a secondary threat of large
hail. On the eastern half of the convection...moving eastward into
Northwest Arkansas...limited severe potentials will also continue
with strong to locally damaging winds and large hail the main
threats. By late afternoon the majority of the convection is
forecast to be exiting Southeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.

Along with the severe potential through this afternoon...the heavy
rainfall and flash flood potential will continue to be a concern
as well. Locally 1 to 2 inches of rainfall are possible with the
high rain rates along the leading line of convection.

With the convection moving through the CWA today...temperatures
through this afternoon remain more uncertain through the
afternoon hours. At this time...high temps in the upper 70s to mid
80s still remain on track and will continue to monitor through
the day for local adjustments.


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 346 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Convective chances tonight behind today`s complex are highly
uncertain, so have stuck with the NBM pops for now. Much of
Tuesday will likely be dry, but storm chances will ramp up Tuesday
evening and overnight as a weak frontal boundary approaches from
the north. Severe storms and locally heavy rainfall appear likely
again at this time.

A relatively dry period will exist behind this frontal boundary
Wednesday through Friday before mainly overnight and morning storm
chances increase again by the weekend as high plains convection
tracks southeast each night in the northwest flow pattern aloft.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 623 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

The main change to the forecast was to adjust TAFs for the
anticipated arrival of an MCS which is expected to sweep across
the region later today per more recent model data. TEMPOs were
used to time the arrival, with gusty winds and lower vsbys. Also
used VCTS mention to cover the spotty warm advection showers and
storms early this morning. Storms should be done by 00Z this
evening, though some data has storms redeveloping late tonight
across the region. Given the uncertainty near the tail end of the
forecast, used PROB30 groups to cover that potential.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   82  69  86  68 /  90  40  20  60
FSM   84  71  87  70 /  90  50  20  70
MLC   83  70  86  69 /  80  50  10  60
BVO   81  66  85  66 /  90  50  20  60
FYV   81  67  84  66 /  80  40  30  70
BYV   80  66  84  66 /  80  40  30  70
MKO   80  69  86  69 /  90  40  10  70
MIO   80  67  84  66 /  90  50  30  70
F10   82  69  86  68 /  90  50  10  70
HHW   84  69  86  70 /  70  50  10  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...30