Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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058 FXUS64 KTSA 010710 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 210 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today and Tonight) Issued at 133 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 NW flow prevails aloft, upstream from a shortwave trough over MO/AR. Storms that are currently going over western KS will make a run at us, but are expected to dissipate before reaching eastern OK. With mostly clear skies, cool and relatively moist conditions in place, some fog has developed across the region. Some of this fog may be locally dense, but currently not widespread enough to warrant any headlines. With the shortwave trough now east of us, we should see more sun, warmer and mainly dry conditions today. There are some hints of isolated storm chances mainly over central OK so included some low PoPs mainly west of highway 75 for the afternoon and early evening. Indications are that storms developing over the High Plains this afternoon will make a run at us again tonight, with better success due to some uptick in westerly flow aloft. PoPs/thunder probs trend upward especially from Tulsa to the north and west by late tonight. Lacy && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Friday) Issued at 133 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 Some storms are expected to be ongoing Sunday morning across mainly NE OK. By afternoon, coverage looks more widely scattered with hints of a weak convective-induced vort max sliding overhead. Another shortwave trough is expected to slide across the central Plains Sunday/Sunday night, forcing a boundary down that will focus a relative max in storm chances across the north and east toward Monday morning. Outflow from these storms could fire more activity Monday afternoon and night. After a relative lull on Tuesday, a strong shortwave trough is expected to slide across the north-central US toward the middle of next week on the nose of a powerful cross-Pacific upper jet. This will force an initial frontal boundary into the area late Tuesday into Wednesday, with another reinforcing front pushing thru Thursday. With strong NW flow aloft in place over the Plains south of deep cyclonic flow centered over the Great Lakes, models are starting to suggest a period of active nighttime MCS activity beginning Friday night. We`ll just have to wait and see. Lacy && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1148 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Ongoing storms across NW AR are likely to wane and gradually move east over the next several hours with minimal impact to local terminals. Otherwise, a widely varying mix of cloud heights and eventual fog development will complicate the forecast through the mid morning hours. Thereafter, a trend toward rising ceilings and/or eroding fog will lead to VFR conditions by afternoon. Any afternoon storm coverage is expected to remain too isolated to warrant mention. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 85 67 88 71 / 10 10 30 30 FSM 86 67 89 72 / 0 10 30 20 MLC 86 67 87 71 / 10 10 30 30 BVO 83 64 86 68 / 10 20 40 40 FYV 83 62 85 68 / 10 10 30 20 BYV 81 61 86 67 / 10 10 20 20 MKO 83 66 86 70 / 10 10 30 30 MIO 81 64 85 68 / 0 10 40 30 F10 85 66 86 70 / 10 10 30 30 HHW 85 67 86 70 / 20 0 30 30 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM....30 AVIATION...07