Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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172 FXUS64 KTSA 301721 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1221 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 1044 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Multiple areas of showers and thunderstorms were depicted on radar and satellite this morning across the region. In particular, a MCV was noted in S-Central Oklahoma and another convective complex was navigating along & north of the OK-KS border. Expectation is for these features to gradually shift eastward over the next several hours. As they do so, convective inhibition across E OK will continue to erode into this afternoon and allow for increasing shower/ storm coverage. Thus, will keep PoPs fairly close to the ongoing forecast with this update (chance/ low-end likely). While bulk shear will remain on the low side, 500-1000 J/kg MUCAPE and modest mid-level lapse rates may still support a marginally severe storm or two. The highest severe risk will occur across SE OK/ along & W of Hwy 75 in NE OK. Remainder of the forecast is in good shape with only minor updates made to better reflect current trends. && .SHORT TERM... (Today) Issued at 259 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Clusters of showers/thunderstorms continue this morning well west of the area across the high Plains. Latest CAMS have been somewhat inconsistent with storm evolution today. At least scattered showers/thunderstorms are expected to move and/or develop across eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas this afternoon/evening. Deep layer shear is expected to remain relatively light (20kts or less), but with modest afternoon heating a few of these storms could be marginally severe across eastern Oklahoma with damaging winds/hail. && .LONG TERM... (Tonight through Wednesday) Issued at 259 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024 More widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected late tonight into Friday as strong mid level wave moves across the region. Locally heavy rainfall will be likely in the stronger storms. Depending on how much surface based instability can develop, at least a limited threat for severe storms will be possible south of I-40. The heavier precipitation will begin to shift east of northwest Arkansas Friday evening. With stronger zonal flow aloft both GFS/ECMWF suggest additional rounds of scattered showers and thunderstorms Saturday through Wednesday with the potential for additional MCS/MCV activity. Overall QPF amounts will likely remain light in most areas, however there could be some isolated pockets of heavier rainfall. High temperatures are forecast to be near or slightly above normal for the early to middle part of next week, but again this will be contingent on how much precipitation lingers each afternoon. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1221 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Multiple rounds of showers and T-storms are expected across E OK & NW AR today thru tomorrow morning with cigs/vsbys periodically falling into MVFR/IFR category for all sites. VFR conditions are currently being observed across NW AR sites, but expect conditions to deteriorate here by late afternoon. Guidance has begun to indicate a longer & more widespread period of IFR conditions developing after 06z tonight and persisting into the 12-18z timeframe. Kept the forecast towards the optimistic side for now (MVFR), though future updates may be required if current trends continue. Except for when influenced by thunderstorms, winds should remain near or below 10 kts through the period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 66 77 63 84 / 70 90 40 20 FSM 67 78 67 85 / 50 80 60 40 MLC 66 79 64 84 / 70 90 40 30 BVO 62 76 60 83 / 80 80 30 20 FYV 63 75 62 83 / 50 80 60 40 BYV 63 73 63 81 / 40 80 70 40 MKO 65 75 63 83 / 70 90 50 30 MIO 64 73 62 81 / 70 80 50 20 F10 64 76 63 83 / 70 90 40 30 HHW 65 78 66 81 / 60 90 40 40 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...05 LONG TERM....12 AVIATION...43