-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
419
FXUS61 KILN 030634
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
234 AM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak front moving into the area will washout tonight allowing
high pressure to build in. The high will keep the area
predominantly warm and dry into Tuesday. Showers and
thunderstorms will return midweek as a cold front approaches and
moves through the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL NOON TODAY/...
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With the clearing clouds over eastern CWA, fog is developing in
the river valleys. Satellite is showing the fog spreading beyond
the valleys and it looks to be doing so steadily. With all of
this, dense fog advisory has been issued until 11:00. The time
may be a little long, but if a blanketing fog settles over the
region, there may be some lingering low vsbys lasting a little
longer as the stratus ground fog lifts and breaks up through the
morning hours. Previous discussion:

This should also allow for a decreasing cloud trend through late
evening but with lingering boundary layer moisture, some areas
of stratus and fog are expected to develop later tonight into
early Monday morning, with the best chance for this for areas
along and southeast of the I-71 corridor. Lows will mainly be in
the lower 60s.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /NOON TODAY THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
Surface high will build in and then slide off to the east during
the period. Meanwhile moderate amplitude mid level ridging will
also develop. This will lead to dry and warmer conditions. Any
fog and stratus in the morning will eventually break and evolve
into some scattered cumulus. The cumulus will dissipate with the
loss of heating with just some high clouds Monday night. Highs
will be in the lower to mid 80s with lows in the lower to mid
60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
An upper level trough and cold front will start approaching the Ohio
Valley on Tuesday into Tuesday night the northwest. Strengthening
southerly flow develops ahead of the disturbance leading to
increasing temperatures and moisture across the region. Highs are
forecast to spike into the middle to upper 80s by Tuesday afternoon
with humid conditions in place. Some instability should develop by
the afternoon which allows for afternoon/evening shower and
thunderstorm chances although coverage remains uncertain since
forcing and shear is weak. Muggy conditions and some rain chances
continue into Tuesday night due to persistent southerly flow.

The cold front and upper level trough arrives later in the day on
Wednesday. Showers and storms are expected since peak diurnal
instability appears at least moderately likely to overlap deep
moisture, shear, and forcing. The cold front will then progress to
the east Wednesday night thereby quickly reducing shower and storm
chances. Winds shift to the west behind the front and cooler air
arrives.

Below average temperatures and westerly winds persist through the
end of the week due to a long wave trough setting up over the Great
Lakes region. Multiple chances for showers will exist in this
synoptic setup as cold fronts and shortwaves rotate around the
trough axis.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Exiting/dissipating stratus around 8kft at CMH/LCK and a bit
less at ILN will see fog development as the skies clear early
this morning. Observations of dense fog over southern CWA is
bringing ground truth to the expanding fog, which will continue
to develop across the region. Dayton may be the lone terminal
that doesn`t get hit hard with the fog but nearby observations
had me forecast a slightly lower impact with less time in the
dense LIFR and a little improvement in the tempo groups.

After the low stratus/fog lifts after daybreak, it will mix out
in favor of some passing cu in the afternoon that dissipates in
the evening with the loss of insolation/direct heating. Did not
forecast a bkn deck but some indications suggest the cu could
thicken to be a ceiling. However, if this is the case it should
be VFR.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms Wednesday and Wednesday night.
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&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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OH...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for OHZ026-034-
     035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for KYZ089>100.
IN...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for INZ050-058-
     059-066-073>075-080.
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&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...Franks
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...Campbell
AVIATION...JGL