-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
951
FXUS65 KABQ 091153 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
553 AM MDT Sun Jun 9 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 314 AM MDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Numerous storms will create an increased risk of flash flooding over
recent burn scars and in eastern NM this afternoon through Monday
afternoon. A few storms may become severe across eastern NM today
and again Monday afternoon, with damaging wind gusts being the
predominant severe threat. All the storms and clouds will keep
temperatures below average the next couple days, but the cooldown
will be short lived as the hot weather returns mid-week. Showers and
storms will favor the northern high terrain Tuesday afternoon,
although coverage will be significantly less than previous days.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 314 AM MDT Sun Jun 9 2024

The long-loitering Pacific low finally made its debut in the Sonoran
Desert overnight, expecting to saddle up to the shortwave ridge
currently overhead today. Meanwhile, a convectively-aided, moisture-
rich backdoor front is surging southwestward having just passed
through the east central plains. A swath of low clouds is following
behind in the boundary`s wake, set to wash over the northern half of
the eastern plains through the morning. As saturation fills into the
west, an impressive density gradient will setup between the middle
RGV and central highlands. A breezy morning gap wind is likely
across the ABQ and SAF metros in the early morning hours in
response. The low will weaken and become discombobulated as it
tracks north with multiple lobes of vorticity forming as its center
becomes ambiguous. This will provide enhanced lift amongst moderate
instability and ample moisture to generate another crop of afternoon
thunderstorms. With just enough shear and instability to be
problematic, a few storms will have the juice needed to become
severe, capable of large hail and damaging winds. Latest guidance
suggests the best parameters for severe storms will favor the east
central plains where CAPE of 3500 J/kg will meet with 25 to 30 kts
of shear. The shear continues to be the limiting factor, being just
a hair shy of optimal for storm organization. The higher PWATs will
bring storms of a wetter fashion across the central mts and
eastward, where localized heavy rainfall will lead to enhanced flash
flooding risk, especially over the northern burn scars. As such, did
maintain the previously issued Flash Flood Watch. Meanwhile, west of
the central mts, storms will have less access to the higher moisture
quality. This will force them to once again trend drier, capable of
sudden and strong downburst winds. As storms in eastern NM persist
into the evening, a convectively-aided outflow may allow for a
reprise of gusty east canyon winds across the central valleys
tonight. Showers and storms will be slow to exit across northeastern
and east central NM overnight, with additional rounds of rainfall
possible.

Given the front`s enthusiastic progression southward overnight and
model propensity to under perform with these types of boundaries,
did trend daytime highs to the lower side of guidance, especially
across eastern NM. Temperatures today will be 5F to 20F cooler
areawide with some locales dipping below normal.

The low center attempts to reform early Monday morning over northern
NM, setting the stage for another active day. Rich moisture will
remain in place, spreading further westward partially in thanks to
the surging overnight outflows. This will allow for the coverage of
wetting storms to increase to previously parched areas west of the
central mts in the afternoon. Instability will trend down rather
significantly in the presence of cooler temperatures and existing
cloud cover. Still, pockets of CAPE around 1500 J/kg will exist east
of the central mts and in the presence of better shear of 35 to 40
kts may still be able to pop off a handful more severe storms in
the afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
-- Changed Discussion --
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 314 AM MDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Storms may continue into the overnight hours Monday, with the
greatest likelihood in the southeast plains as outflow boundaries
attempt to regenerate elevated convection. Tuesday will be drier
than the previous two days, but a few showers and storms are still
likely in the northern mountains and northeast plains. Previously,
models indicated that a shortwave would graze the northeast corner
of the state Tuesday afternoon, but now it looks like that feature
will already be well off to the east by peak afternoon heating.
PWATs will still hover around 0.6" over the northern mtns Tuesday
afternoon so flash flooding cannot be ruled out over recent burn
scars given that the soils will likely be primed from Sunday and
Monday`s rainfall.

A pattern change begins Wednesday as ridging amplifies over the
desert southwest. The subsidence from a ~595dm High over northern
Mexico and clear skies will help temps warm well-above average
again, creating areas of major heat risk along the Rio Grande
Valley, Four Corners Region, and the southeast plains. Thursday
might end up being the hottest day of the week as the ridge shifts
overhead and compressional heating will be at its greatest. Guidance
is finally getting into better agreement about the Low will eject
inland into the desert southwest Friday. As it moves over the Four
Corners, it`ll generate some south to west winds, especially in the
western and central portions of the state. Scattered convection will
favor the high terrain of northern NM with some fast moving dry
storms and virga showers across the west.  After Friday, there is
high uncertainty with regard to the synoptic pattern. Two out of
four ensemble clusters favor a broad trough over the Great Basin
which would create dry westerly breezes in New Mexico and prevent
moisture from sloshing in from the east. The other two ensemble
clusters place the trough over the Canadian Plains or over the Gulf
of Alaska. None of these solutions point to more than isolated storm
coverage and they would all favor near to above average temperatures.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 543 AM MDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Unsettled weather will persist throughout the TAF period. A
backdoor cold front surging south and westward is creating an
impressive density gradient between the central highlands and
middle Rio Grande Valley. This will result in a brisk ely wind at
KABQ, persisting for the first few hours of the TAF period. Shwrs
and tstms will return this aftn with the potential for strong
winds, lcl heavy rainfall, hail, and frequent lightning. A few
storms in the ern plains may become severe. Storms west of the
central mts will remain drier in nature, capable of sudden and
strong downburst winds. Any direct hits to terminals will result
in brief MVFR/IFR cigs/vsbys. Shwrs will persist through the
evening and overnight hours for portions of the ern plains.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 314 AM MDT Sun Jun 9 2024

A moisture-rich backdoor front will continuing surging southward and
westward today, allowing for humidity values to increase in its
wake. Afternoon storms will be possible again today and Monday, with
the potential for wetting footprints increasing. Storms west of the
central mountains today may still trend drier with erratic gusty
winds before better moisture enters the domain on Monday. Storms in
eastern New Mexico may become strong to severe, with large hail and
damaging winds both days. A ridge of high pressure builds overhead
on Tuesday, allowing for a warming and drying trend to take hold.
Min RH values will fall steadily each day, reaching back into the
low double and single digits west of the central mountains on
Wednesday and Thursday. The ridge will begin breaking down Thursday
night, allowing for winds aloft to increase. This will bring
stronger south and southwest winds areawide on Friday. The breezy to
locally windy conditions will combine with low min RH, particularly
west of the central mountains, giving rise to critical fire
conditions for western New Mexico and the middle Rio Grande Valley.
Winds will subside quickly with the disturbance`s exit to the north
on Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  95  62  83  56 /   5  20  20   0
Dulce...........................  89  48  74  43 /  20  30  40  10
Cuba............................  85  51  74  50 /  20  40  40  10
Gallup..........................  86  49  82  45 /  10  10  10   0
El Morro........................  79  51  77  50 /  10  30  30   5
Grants..........................  84  48  81  47 /  20  30  40  10
Quemado.........................  78  50  81  51 /  20  30  20   5
Magdalena.......................  82  56  79  57 /  30  30  50  10
Datil...........................  79  51  79  54 /  30  40  50  10
Reserve.........................  83  44  88  45 /  20  10  20   5
Glenwood........................  87  59  92  62 /  20  10  10   0
Chama...........................  81  45  67  44 /  30  40  70  20
Los Alamos......................  81  57  71  58 /  60  60  70  20
Pecos...........................  82  52  73  53 /  60  80  80  20
Cerro/Questa....................  78  46  67  46 /  80  50  80  30
Red River.......................  68  44  62  43 /  80  60  80  30
Angel Fire......................  72  39  65  39 /  80  70  80  30
Taos............................  84  50  72  47 /  70  50  70  20
Mora............................  73  47  69  48 /  80  80  80  20
Espanola........................  89  58  79  55 /  60  50  60  20
Santa Fe........................  82  56  73  56 /  50  70  70  20
Santa Fe Airport................  86  57  77  55 /  50  60  60  20
Albuquerque Foothills...........  87  62  78  62 /  40  60  50  10
Albuquerque Heights.............  88  62  80  61 /  30  50  40  10
Albuquerque Valley..............  91  61  83  60 /  30  50  40  10
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  90  62  81  61 /  30  50  40  10
Belen...........................  91  58  85  56 /  30  40  40  10
Bernalillo......................  90  62  81  61 /  40  50  40  10
Bosque Farms....................  90  57  83  56 /  30  40  40  10
Corrales........................  90  60  81  59 /  40  50  40  10
Los Lunas.......................  91  57  84  56 /  30  40  40  10
Placitas........................  87  60  77  61 /  40  60  50  10
Rio Rancho......................  89  62  80  61 /  30  50  40  10
Socorro.........................  92  62  89  63 /  30  30  40  10
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  81  55  74  56 /  40  60  50  10
Tijeras.........................  83  56  77  57 /  40  60  50  10
Edgewood........................  81  55  77  54 /  40  70  60  10
Moriarty/Estancia...............  82  50  78  48 /  40  70  60  10
Clines Corners..................  75  51  72  51 /  50  90  70  20
Mountainair.....................  81  53  78  54 /  40  50  50  10
Gran Quivira....................  80  52  79  53 /  40  50  60  10
Carrizozo.......................  85  59  85  60 /  40  40  50  20
Ruidoso.........................  80  52  78  55 /  50  30  70  10
Capulin.........................  71  53  69  51 /  70  80  70  30
Raton...........................  78  53  73  52 /  70  80  70  20
Springer........................  79  55  73  53 /  80  90  80  30
Las Vegas.......................  74  52  69  51 /  70  80  80  20
Clayton.........................  74  58  71  56 /  40  70  60  30
Roy.............................  74  56  69  54 /  60  90  70  30
Conchas.........................  80  59  76  58 /  50  90  70  30
Santa Rosa......................  80  58  75  57 /  50  90  70  20
Tucumcari.......................  80  58  75  58 /  40  90  60  30
Clovis..........................  84  61  77  61 /  40  80  60  50
Portales........................  89  60  80  59 /  40  80  60  40
Fort Sumner.....................  85  61  80  59 /  40  90  60  30
Roswell.........................  94  67  86  68 /  30  30  40  20
Picacho.........................  86  58  83  58 /  50  50  70  10
Elk.............................  86  55  83  55 /  50  30  60  10

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from noon MDT today through Monday afternoon for
NMZ214-215-229.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...12