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422
FXUS65 KABQ 080546 AAB
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1146 PM MDT Fri Jun 7 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 234 PM MDT Fri Jun 7 2024

The intense heat will continue for one more day Saturday but be a
touch cooler compared to yesterday and today as high pressure moves
a little more east. A storm of two in far northeast areas along the
backdoor front near to Colorado line could become strong to severe.
The backdoor front surges through eastern areas come Sunday morning
with higher moisture and much cooler temperatures behind it. This,
along with a disturbance moving in from the southwest, will set the
stage for widespread showers and storms along and east of the
central mountain chain with a high threat for flash flooding on the
Hermits Peak Calf Canyon burn scar. Another round of storms is
possible for northern and eastern areas Monday along with cooler
temperatures. High pressure then develops over the region Tuesday
reducing storm coverage and heating temperatures back up. High
pressure intensifies overhead mid next week resulting in little if
any storm coverage and very hot temperatures once again.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 234 PM MDT Fri Jun 7 2024

A significant uptick in convection today as mid-level moisture has
worked north over the area round the upper high circulation, which is
moving eastward over TX. There has been a mix of wet/dry storms so
far with a number of dry lightning strikes across western and
northern NM, but no notable wind gusts so far. instability is most
notable across eastern NM, with the best shear across the far
northeast where a storm or two may become strong to severe through
the afternoon hours. KABX radar shows outflow from convection over
the western mountains moving east toward the middle RGV and will
likely bring gusty winds into the Albuquerque Metro between 3-5PM
with some virga. This round of convection is completely driven by
daytime heating and will follow a normal diurnal downtrend later
this evening. Drier air is forecast to work around the upper high
circulation over western and into central NM Saturday, bringing a
downtick in coverage of convection. The best chances on Saturday
afternoon/evening will be in the south central mountains and across
far northeast NM where a weak backdoor front will poke in and help
provide added moisture and shear. A storm or two may become strong
to severe on Saturday afternoon/evening near the CO border, but
otherwise strong/erratic wind gusts and very little measurable
rainfall is expected with Saturday`s crop. Saturday will be another
hot one with above normal high temperatures, but just below advisory
threshold. The backdoor front will slide down the eastern plains
Saturday night, bringing in higher surface dewpoint temperatures and
more low level moisture and setting the stage for Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 234 PM MDT Fri Jun 7 2024

A backdoor front will be surging down the eastern plains and
highlands Sunday morning banked up along the east slopes of the
central mountain chain. Higher moisture will be in place behind this
front with dewpoints in the 50s across the plains and near 60 along
the TX state line. In the upper levels the remnants of the Baja CA
upper low will be moving north along the AZ/NM border. This setup
will result in the development of scattered to numerous showers and
storms along the east slopes of the central mountain chain come the
early afternoon. Thus, a higher risk of flash flooding on the HPCC
burn scar is expected Sunday afternoon and early evening. Some virga
showers and dry storms could develop across the higher terrain of
central and western NM thank to the mid level moisture but dry low
levels east of the upper level disturbance. Storms across northeast
NM look to grow upscale and develop into a MCS during the evening
hours moving east into West Texas during the overnight hours.
Damaging wind gusts and some large hail look to be the main threats
from this. Some additional storms could be possible across the
northeast highlands Sunday night due to the upslope flow in the wake
of the departing MCS.

The outflow from the MCS will surge west overnight and bring an
east wind and higher surface moisture to the ABQ and Santa Fe metros
early Monday morning. Thus will result in the cooler temperatures of
the week with highs in the mid 80s to near 90. There is a moderate
to high uncertainty to Monday afternoon`s forecast. First, the NAM
holds a tail of the upper level trough back across north central NM
this doesn`t mix out the surface moisture across north central NM
west of the Sangre de Cristo mountains as quickly resulting in some
showers and storms to develop. The GFS and ECMWF have the upper
level trough more consolidated over northeast NM and southeast CO
with the drier westerly flow behind it across western and central NM
resulting in little if any storm coverage. Second, the coverage of
showers and storms in northeast NM could be lower than currently
forecasted. There will be good lift and dynamics in the area due to
being in the vicinity of the upper level trough. However, lots of
cloud cover, cooler temperatures, and low instability will be
present in the wake of Sunday evening`s MCS. The question will be if
the atmosphere can recover enough to produce another round of
showers and storms Monday afternoon and early evening. If that
occurs, the motion of this activity will be quicker to the east and
southeast as the upper level disturbance/low departs east to the
southern plains.

The story beginning Tuesday returns once again to the hotter
temperatures and eventually extreme heat. Upper level high pressure
redevelops over the state Tuesday at around 591 dm strengthening to
as much as 596 to 598 dm come Thursday! For comparison, the upper
high yesterday evening was analyzed at 593 dm. This will result in
temperatures in the low to mid 90s for northern and central NM to
around 100 for southern NM Tuesday increasing to upper 90s to near
100 for northern and central NM and mid 100 for southern NM
Thursday. Some guidance is showing highs around 100 degrees at
Farmington and Albuquerque on Thursday with NBM probabilities around
20 to 30%. Roswell could exceed 105 degrees with NBM probabilities
around 70%. In other news, heat advisories will probably be in play
once again come Thursday if guidance continues showing the upper
high this strong. The strong subsidence beneath the high and lack of
mid level moisture will result in little if any shower and storm
development over the higher terrain.

&&

.AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1139 PM MDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Remnant isold shwrs/tstms will continue tracking nely,
diminishing in the early portion of the TAF period. Conditions
will dry out overnight, with winds becoming mostly light and vrb.
Aftn shwrs/tstm activity will return Saturday with the highest
coverage favoring along and east of the central mts. Drier virga
shwrs will be more likely across portions of the upper Rio Grande
Valley and wwd, as well as the southwest mts. Storms across ern NM
may be capable of becoming severe with large hail and damaging
winds. Convective activity will diminish in the late evening.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 234 PM MDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Critical fire weather conditions are not expected for at least the
next seven days. A mix of wet/dry storms have developed across much
of the area today, with dry lightning strikes noted across much of
western and northern NM. Expect a downtick Saturday as dry air
overtakes much of central and western NM, where hot, dry and
unstable conditions will reside. A backdoor front will slide down
the eastern plains Saturday night and replenish moisture for a round
of wetting storms on Sunday and Monday, which will include the
northern mountains. An upper level ridge will poke north over NM on
Tue/Wed/Thu of next week, bringing increasingly hot, dry and
unstable conditions with worsening humidity recovery. A Pacific
trough/low will approach next Friday, bringing some wind and chances
for wetting storms to the area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  60  97  58  91 /   5   0   5   5
Dulce...........................  53  91  45  89 /  20   0   5  20
Cuba............................  59  91  55  85 /  20   5   5  20
Gallup..........................  53  92  52  85 /   5   0   5  10
El Morro........................  55  88  56  80 /  10   5   5  20
Grants..........................  54  92  55  86 /  10   0   5  20
Quemado.........................  57  89  56  81 /  20   5  10  20
Magdalena.......................  63  90  64  84 /  10  10  10  30
Datil...........................  60  88  61  80 /  10  10  10  30
Reserve.........................  56  92  51  88 /  20   5  10  20
Glenwood........................  65  96  66  92 /   5   5  10  20
Chama...........................  52  84  46  83 /  20   5   5  30
Los Alamos......................  64  90  63  84 /  20  10  10  40
Pecos...........................  60  91  57  82 /  30  20  20  60
Cerro/Questa....................  54  85  51  80 /  20  20  10  60
Red River.......................  50  76  46  74 /  20  20  20  70
Angel Fire......................  48  80  41  77 /  20  20  20  80
Taos............................  54  90  50  86 /  20  10  10  50
Mora............................  57  86  51  78 /  20  20  20  70
Espanola........................  61  96  59  92 /  30  10  10  30
Santa Fe........................  63  91  61  85 /  20  10  10  40
Santa Fe Airport................  62  95  59  89 /  20   5  10  40
Albuquerque Foothills...........  69  96  69  91 /  10   5  10  30
Albuquerque Heights.............  68  98  66  92 /  10   0  10  20
Albuquerque Valley..............  67 100  65  94 /  10   0  10  20
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  68  98  68  92 /  10   0  10  20
Belen...........................  64 100  64  94 /  10   0  10  20
Bernalillo......................  67  99  66  94 /  10   0  10  20
Bosque Farms....................  65 100  62  94 /  10   0  10  20
Corrales........................  68  99  67  94 /  10   0  10  20
Los Lunas.......................  65 100  64  94 /  10   0  10  20
Placitas........................  67  96  66  89 /  10   5  10  30
Rio Rancho......................  68  98  67  93 /  10   0  10  20
Socorro.........................  68 101  69  95 /  20   5  10  20
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  64  90  63  83 /  10   5  10  30
Tijeras.........................  64  91  62  86 /  10   5  10  30
Edgewood........................  61  92  58  87 /  20   5  10  40
Moriarty/Estancia...............  57  94  55  88 /  30   5  10  40
Clines Corners..................  60  90  56  81 /  30  10  10  50
Mountainair.....................  61  91  59  85 /  30   5  10  30
Gran Quivira....................  62  92  59  86 /  40  10  10  30
Carrizozo.......................  67  94  66  90 /  30  10  20  30
Ruidoso.........................  61  85  61  82 /  50  30  20  40
Capulin.........................  57  86  53  73 /  20  50  30  60
Raton...........................  55  90  54  79 /  10  30  20  60
Springer........................  57  92  56  81 /  20  20  20  60
Las Vegas.......................  59  89  56  79 /  30  20  20  60
Clayton.........................  66  93  59  77 /  40  20  40  40
Roy.............................  62  92  58  76 /  40  20  20  60
Conchas.........................  66 101  64  84 /  40  10  20  50
Santa Rosa......................  66  98  62  84 /  20  10  20  50
Tucumcari.......................  69 101  63  85 /  20  10  20  40
Clovis..........................  69 100  66  91 /  20   5  30  40
Portales........................  69 101  66  93 /  20   5  20  40
Fort Sumner.....................  70 101  64  91 /  20   5  20  40
Roswell.........................  73 103  73  98 /  20   5  10  20
Picacho.........................  65  96  66  91 /  40  20  20  40
Elk.............................  63  92  63  90 /  40  30  20  40

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....71
AVIATION...12